Hi Rider Fan,
The links you provided are very useful. But they don't confirm that "30% according to the link below (25% according to ccfa site link above) of surgical patients will need another surgery in their lifetime. Optimistic spin: Odds are that most people who have surgery will only have 1 surgery."
Actually, the CCFA site said, as you noted, that 50% of patients will have a recurrence within five years. Then it says "about" half of those with recurrent symptoms will have a second surgery. It doesn't say whether it is talking about those with recurrent symptoms in five years, or six, seven, etc., or a lifetime. It also doesn't identify what percentage of patients have a recurrence in 6 years, 7 years, etc...presumably, these stats are higher than 50%. Because it is unclear about the lifetime chance of a second surgery, the 30% stat is not supported...this seems to be only the best case scenario, looking at only five years out from the first surgery.
http://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/11/3971.pdf - This link says, "Post-operative recurrence rates defined by clinical symptoms are 17-55% at 5 years, 32-76% at 10 years and 72-73% at 20 years. The rates of recurrence requiring re-operation are 11-32% at 5 years, 20-44% at 10 years, and 36-55% at 20 years." Aside from the fact that these stats are all over the place (32-76%?? at 10 years), it concludes, "Thus, the re-operation rate tends to steadily increase with time, reaching approximately 50% at 20 years after surgery." 50%, not 30%.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15362027 - This link doesn't talk about second surgeries, but does say post-op disease recurrence can range between 34% and 70% in just 24 months.
There are is a lot of great info in these links -- thanks! But the 30% lifetime stat you came up with is just not supported by these links. Furthermore, none of these articles talk about third, fourth, or fifth (and more) surgeries.
Post Edited (njmom) : 2/15/2009 9:25:20 PM (GMT-7)