COVID-19

potsnpans, I'll just clarify what I mean about the pcr testing.

NYT reported three different studies showing that 50-90% of people tested with pcr barely had any virus and were not contagious.

This type of result I would call "false positive" IN THE SENSE that these people were not sick with Covid, they didn't have the disease (not currently or perhaps never). They were not "new cases" and were not infectious.

I'm sure there are other results that would be literal "false positives" in that the entire result of pcr test was wrong or perhaps there would even be some false negatives.

On another subject, we need to remember that Redfield estimated 30-60 million people in US have already contracted Covid. If 60 million people, then that would be one in five people in US. When we go out (grocery store, etc.), we are probably around several people who have already been exposed to Covid - we ourselves may have unknowingly - and are an immune protective barrier. It appears that the narrative being pushed is that everyone is still a threat to everyone, but there is evidence that this is not the case.

"Epidemic Maestro Dr Johan Giesecke schools the Irish Parliament:
"he recommends that the virus be let spread through the population alongside a programme that concentrates on the “old and frail” and that frequently tests staff and residents in care homes""

https://twitter.com/fatemperor/status/1308741605160112129

ChristianWithLyme said...
NYT reported three different studies showing that 50-90% of people tested with pcr barely had any virus and were not contagious.
This type of result I would call "false positive" IN THE SENSE that these people were not sick with Covid, they didn't have the disease (not currently or perhaps never). They were not "new cases" and were not infectious.

It was one study that used 3 sets of testing data.. and yes it showed 50-90% of those tested were not likely to be contagious. They may or may not have been symptomatic when they were tested.. we don't know that part. We know they had the virus in their bodies, so from an epidemiological perspective they were infected at some point.

You've said that you don't like calling these all "new cases" because you think it's too alarming. What should we call them? We can't call them "new positives" because that wouldn't adequately separate out those who are being tested multiple times (and testing positive more than once). We definitely can't call them false positives.. that is a term reserved for when there is an error in the test (when the virus is not actually in the body, but the test says it is). "Cases" seems appropriate.

ChristianWithLyme said...
On another subject, we need to remember that Redfield estimated 30-60 million people in US have already contracted Covid. If 60 million people, then that would be one in five people in US. When we go out (grocery store, etc.), we are probably around several people who have already been exposed to Covid - we ourselves may have unknowingly - and are an immune protective barrier. It appears that the narrative being pushed is that everyone is still a threat to everyone, but there is evidence that this is not the case.

The evidence comes from testing and other related data. When "new cases" rise, that is a sign that the virus is becoming more ubiquitous (of course there are other factors to consider).

How contagious the virus is (the R0 value) is getting reconfigured constantly by very smart people (who I'm sure are doing the best they can). It's always going to be different for different areas, but aquired immunity plays a role as do individual and societal behaviors.

Redfield's comment was: “I think if you’re going to do a crude estimate, somewhere between 30 and 60 million people, but let’s let the data come out and see what it shows.”

...so yeah this comment was not meant to inform on whether cases will rise or fall. We have data for that.

ChristianWithLyme said...
"Epidemic Maestro Dr Johan Giesecke schools the Irish Parliament:
"he recommends that the virus be let spread through the population alongside a programme that concentrates on the “old and frail” and that frequently tests staff and residents in care facilities

I won't say he's wrong, but most epidemiologists are saying that if the virus is allowed to spread through the population, it will inevitably make it to those who are of high risk.. so I don't think they could be protected in this scenario, even with a "programme" such as the one he suggested. Then there's the long hauler problem...

FL has reopened restaurants and other businesses to 100% capacity and suspended any fines or penalties for not wearing a mask. This announcement comes after Gov. DeSantis did a virtual roundtable with leading Stanford and Harvard health experts.

"Yesterday’s interview of Harvard & Stanford professors of medicine
@MartinKulldorff
, Jay Battacharya &
@Mlevitt_NP2013
is the sanest appraisal of the C-19 situation I've heard. I know many won’t have 2 hours to take it all in, so here’s a summary."

https://twitter.com/nickhudsonct/status/1309471981792886784

Girlie said...
Maybe time to switch gears ?
How is everyone faring re:covid ?

Does your State (or Province) have lockdown happening ... or?

This is getting old, same old repeated blubber.

The only thing I miss is occasional live music, I couldn't give a crap for supporting / seeing live pro sports teams (overpaid, spoiled, cry-babies who should shut up and just play).

Lockdown? We never had one. We could get out and wander whenever we wanted to.

There were restaurants, bars, gyms closed- anything with close gathering or seating, but two months max. Other retail just implemented mandatory masks (like shirt and shoe policy) and some small retail shops limited occupancy (their decision).

Other than going to work or while inside any public building with a mask on, my life is not really different. But I'm not in the middle of a big city so dont use mass transit. Wearing a mask and other protective equipment is also sometimes part of many jobs ive had, it wont kill me, and it wont be forever. Went to the hardware store today, the the gym, them home. Its cool and damp out...maybe ill make a camp-fire in my fire pit tonight, ....but at the moment-that almost feels ironically wrong watching the West burn down more than a thousand miles away. (I can smell it way over here, smoke is in the air and we have no local fires.)

Lifes not that different around here. School is the exception, prob the biggest change, yes, that would be a hassle/hurdle . Glad im past that.
--------------------------------------------------

We had smokey skies here on west coast Canada for about a week. You know it’s bad when it reaches up here!!
Are they getting the fires under control now?
Sad to see the families who lost their homes.

Re:covid - I’ve been wearing a mask when I go out in public. Doesn’t bother me.

Our schools are not the Same state wide they differ per district so some are open With Covid rules, some are online.

I'm hoping to watch that video sometime soon, dcd2103.

Heard a further explanation about PCR test results today:

"I spoke with Dr. Bhattacharya, from Stanford Medical School, about the implications of PCR tests identifying non-infectious, dead virus. Are we quarantining hundreds of thousands of Americans who are not contagious?" @GovRonDeSantis

https://twitter.com/govrondesantis/status/1310588455395696640

Dr. Bhattacharya says that the result of pcr test in above situation is not a false positive in a technical sense but is a false positive in a functional sense. He says that "epidemiologically it's a false positive." The video gives more of his explanation.

This might be the best article to date on why certain countries with seemingly the same rules fare differently, and some sensible ideas about how to approach the situation to obtain an more open economy with less risk. Very sharp.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

Post Edited (dcd2103) : 10/2/2020 8:34:27 AM (GMT-6)

dcd: You beat me to it- I read about half of that Atlantic article last night and was also going to post it.. just hadn't had the chance to finish it yet.

The importance of backwards contact tracing kinda blew my mind.. then I got sleepy and went to bed

Just confirmed that none of the covid positive patients from the White House Super Spreader Event are taking HCQ. Instead they are trying various combinations of remdesivir and Regeneron. They gave the President Regeneron under “compassionate use” which is typically only allowed for people with terminal conditions.

Here is the memo from WH physician:

"“Following PCR-confirmation of the President’s diagnosis, as a precautionary measure he received a single 8 gram dose of Regeneron’s polyclonal antibody cocktail. He completed the infusion without incident. In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin.” -White House physician Sean P. Conley

...I wonder if they will continue to be this forthright with the treatments he receives. Will unlimited resources prevent or quickly resolve any 'long hauler' issues?

I think you're right dcd. Patients who get through a severe acute stage might have lasting damage, but I don't think they're the ones who've been getting the autoimmune stuff.

"If your immune system were going to develop autoimmunity, it would have done so already by 74."

That's interesting. ..still not too much out there on long haulers specifically. I wonder if there's been any kind of polling or profiling done within that FB group...

Post Edited (potsnpans) : 10/2/2020 9:33:41 PM (GMT-6)