MichGuy, you got it basically correct.
For this more detailed response, I refer to Dr Patrick Walsh's book, "Guide to Surviving Prostate Cancer", and specifically to the chapter "How Successful Is Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer, and the sub-section on "What Should I Do If My PSA Comes Back After Surgery"...
Walsh references a study by Alan Partin which characterized men post-surgically prone to either local recurrence or distant metastases. Keep in mind that these were simply characterizations and not definative. The findings were:
Men prone to distant metastases generally have one or more of the following characteristics:
- Gleason scores of 8 or higher,
- cancer found in their seminal vesicles and lymph nodes during surgery, or
- rise in PSA within a year after surgery.
Men more likely to have local recurrence of PC had one or more of the following:
- Gleason scores of 7 or less,
- no cancer found in seminal vesicles and lymph notes, or
- increases in PSA several years after surgery.
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I agree that the time-based element of MichGuy's response is basically correct; that is, the small amount of PC cells left behind locally may need some time to multiply enough times to produce measureable amounts of PSA in the bloodstream.