You have to look at sensitivity and selectivity to evaluate the usefulness of PSA as an early detector of prostate cancer.
"The
sensitivity of the PSA test as an indicator of the presence of prostate cancer is known to be about
80 to 90 percent. In lay terms, what this means is that 80 to 90 percent of men who actually have prostate cancer cells in their prostate will have an elevated PSA level compared to men who show no sign of prostate cancer after having at least one biopsy. (Why 80 to 90 percent? Because it depends where you draw the cut-off line for an “elevated” PSA level — at 4 ng/ml or at 3 ng/ml, or at 2.5 ng/ml. The lower the cut-off line, the higher the sensitivity.)
The
selectivity of the PSA test is about 50 percent. In lay terms again, this means that an elevated PSA level (again compared to PSA levels of men who show no sign of having prostate cancer after at least one biopsy) is a complete toss-up. You could have some prostate cancer cells … but you could just as easily have none."
prostatecancerinfolink.net/2010/11/12/psa-tests-prostate-biopsies-and-the-power-of-circular-thinking/