Fake web news reports on the coronavirus (OT)

JNF said...
I just read a report from South Korea posted by Agency France-Presse that four days in a row the number of new cases have fallen. On Tuesday 131 new cases were reported. This is certainly a good trend. Remember that Southern Korea has by far the most vigorous testing program and report they are testing 10,000 per day. Also their rate of death is comparable to the seasonal flu epidemic. All good news.

Something doesn't jive. Dr Fauci said today at a hearing that this corona virus is ten times more lethal than seasonal flu.

Djin

And I work in a small business (15 employees), and one of our primary suppliers is in Milan. If (as seems likely) we stop getting product from them for more than a couple of weeks--we will be in big trouble. Especially if we have to close the doors for any length of time.

Although I must admit there are far too many replies on this thread for me to read them all, I cannot help adding my own two cents worth. If it has been said prior, my apologies. The flu is a coronavirus. The problem with this particular coronavirus is that it takes a form the human species has never had to deal with before. Other troubling issues are that you are contagious for up to a week before you become symptomatic. This means that the virus can spread unknowingly amongst the general population. I do not believe anything that came out of China or any other communist country. I believe that most governments feel the need to spread misinformation to avoid the panic that is only now beginning. Today VWHO announced that we now have a pandemic on our hands. The mortality rate if it is to be believed is 3.4%. It’s 40% of the worlds population acquires this disease which buy mini is a low estimate that would be 2.8 billion people infected. 3.4% of 2.8 billion is approximately 94 million deaths worldwide. So far this disease kills the elderly but that is until it mutates and begins to take the lives of younger healthier people. I am not an alarmist I am a realist and I has somebody else already said the world is due A culling of the herd. My biggest fear however is not the virus it’s self it is the riots that are sure to happen when people start freaking out about not being able to buy toilet paper. By the way, I have a 12 pack of Charmin and half a can of Lysol disinfectant spray I would be willing to trade for a 67 Camaro

JNF said...
Hi Todd. Hugs and kisses for Mandy from Lee and I.

Djin. The flu is 0.10% lethal. 10 times that is 1%. Listen to the entire segment and Dr. Fauci specifically said that. South Kore has the most reliable large numbers with by far the most testing. Today 7,550 cases and 60 deaths. That is 0.00794702. Or seven tenths of one percent.

(Let's round the S. Korean number to eight tenths of one percent,)

Yes, about 1%, and the U.S. growth curve is following both the international and Italian curves: exponential. The estimate is that because of delays, we're about a month behind where we could have been. Either we take adequate measures to spread out cases over time or our health-care resources will not suffice. I hope your optimism proves correct, but not to prepare would be foolish. From studies of Cinese cities, early measures to keep population density down (social distancing) make a huge difference in infection rate.

Djin

Post Edited (DjinTonic) : 3/11/2020 7:05:02 PM (GMT-6)

So Hal, China has 1.4 billion people and had 80,000 infections. We are 30% that size and would have 50,000,000 infections? Do what you want with “what if” numbers but please let’s be reasonable. No one has had anywhere that level of infection, why would we?

Jack. Sorry. I think we could see a 1% overall infection rate nationwide--Italy certainly seems to be heading that way. We are--at least here in greater Philadelphia--definitely in the exponential growth phase...no deaths in the area yet that I know of. That being said--the waiting game is tough.

Skypilot56 said...
WOW I think someone mentioned the world is ending as we know it? Tom and Rita Hanks have corona virus, NBA suspended, no travel from Europe?

But England is an exception (even though they have several hundred cases). Also, no ban ever in place from S. Korea.

???

Both Tom and Rita qualify for what I believe they are calling Hi Risk? over 60 with health issues. I have a granddaughter studying in Australia right now kinda scary!

Hal, Philadelphia has 1.581 million people. Right now you have 16 cases. 1% in your area would be 15,000 cases. 1% in China would have been 13.5 million and they have 80,000 and are now down to a few dozen a day. No way any of this gets to 1% of the population. Relax.

JNF said...
Ed who did they get it from? Someone that traveled in from Italy? Had they been to Europe? The reports don’t say so we should guard against speculation. Just because they got it in Australia doesn’t mean they got it from a person in Australia that had not traveled. Look at the incidence in the warm countries and it is minuscule. Australia has 128 cases in a population of 24 million.

Their interview showed they are very mild and not hospitalized, thank goodness. A lot of people are going to get this and most all of them are going to be a little sick and then fine. Many that are infected will be asymptomatic, not get tested and never know they had it. That is what we are seeing throughout. Yes some will get very sick and some will die. That happens with other corona viruses and the flu each year and always will. Terrible, but a fact.

the virus has the designation Covid-19 because we knew about it last year. we can speculate about a lot of things but we can't deny that we didn't test and are only now working on our ability to test.

JNF said...
The flu is 0.10% lethal. 10 times that is 1%. Listen to the entire segment and Dr. Fauci specifically said that. South Kore has the most reliable large numbers with by far the most testing. Today 7,550 cases and 60 deaths. That is 0.00794702. Or seven tenths of one percent.

You're quoting the "best" statistic.
In Italy the mortality rate is around 6%. In most countries it exceeds the 1% figure you're quoting.

I don't wish to be alarmist, but also I think underestimating the virus is a huge mistake.

jasperx10 said...

JNF said...
The flu is 0.10% lethal. 10 times that is 1%. Listen to the entire segment and Dr. Fauci specifically said that. South Kore has the most reliable large numbers with by far the most testing. Today 7,550 cases and 60 deaths. That is 0.00794702. Or seven tenths of one percent.

You're quoting the "best" statistic.
In Italy the mortality rate is around 6%. In most countries it exceeds the 1% figure you're quoting.

I don't wish to be alarmist, but also I think underestimating the virus is a huge mistake.

#########

underestimating the virus got us (U.S.) here. we shall see.....

So the NCAA will not have fans. What do you expect the crowds at the sports bars and home parties to be like?