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what are the chances that i have beat PC?

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Posted 9/13/2013 7:55 PM (GMT 0)
i'm three-years post treatment and my PSA is .2.  the rest of my history is in my signature.  based on the statistics what are the chances that I've beat this beast -- i.e., will suffer no BCR?

ed

 

Posted 9/13/2013 7:59 PM (GMT 0)
Looks to me like you nadired-out and the beast is dead. I certainly hope so.

Jim
Posted 9/13/2013 8:21 PM (GMT 0)
I do too Jim but im wondering what the statistics say?  my doctor says that "usually" BCR occurs within the first three years but I know from my years of being here that it can occur at any time.

ed

 

Posted 9/13/2013 8:39 PM (GMT 0)
I don't know the real statics are but I'd put money down that you've beaten it.

Andrew
Posted 9/13/2013 8:51 PM (GMT 0)
one reason I still come here is most of you guys are more optimistic than me cool !

thank you Jim and Andrew!

ed

 

Posted 9/13/2013 9:04 PM (GMT 0)
As a Gleason 9, I have been forced to modify the question. I haven to ask "did I beat it for the last 3 months ?"

Not sure I will ever feel as tho I have ever beaten it. The odds if killing every last PC cell seems insurmountable to me. So I make myself happy with the 3 month thing.

But Ed, if any one has a right to say they have beaten it, you have my vote. Your numbers look great.
Posted 9/13/2013 9:09 PM (GMT 0)
Goodlife -- thank you and I hope you are right but, believe me, I feel exactly like you do.

ed

 

Posted 9/13/2013 9:10 PM (GMT 0)
Not to rain on your parade, but this from Dattoli's book

"Most patients who have a residual cancer will show a rising PSA within 5 years of treatment. Most men whose PSA does not rise after 5 years are considered cured", so far so good, then this comes in...."BUT some men may experience a rising PSA even many years after treatment"....Giveth and Taketh away,

I would say, if you've maintained a consistent PSA for several years without an upward trend, you certainly have a better chance at a cure.

He goes on to say, when if it does come back, it will likely be more aggressive.The gift that keeps on giving...
Posted 9/13/2013 9:15 PM (GMT 0)
Fauntleroy -- thank you.  so I wonder what the percentages are for my particular numbers?  i'm sure there's a study or table  somewhere.

ed

 

Posted 9/13/2013 9:23 PM (GMT 0)
Ed,
I am approaching year 7 with the same questions. We are pretty close in the pathologies and treatments. I don't know that I could ever answer that question with full confidence, but I'm happy to be where I am today.

Tony
Posted 9/13/2013 9:59 PM (GMT 0)
Ed,

I am getting close to 5 years post diagnosis. about six years since symptoms. about 4 and a half years post open surgery. I don't know the answer. I am good so far.

Wishing you the best.

Mike

Posted 9/13/2013 10:25 PM (GMT 0)
F8
Here's a nomogram that should help
prostate-cancer.org/glen-tisman-md-nomograms-predicting-success-of-brachytherapy/

It assigns points for variables including your pre-Brachy PSA, Gleason Sum, clinical stage, EBRT (yes or no). You total your points and then match the total on the scale at the bottom to find your relapse-free probability at 5 years post treatment.

I hope this helps. From what you say, your chance of relapse should be pretty low. Best of luck.

Jim
Posted 9/13/2013 11:44 PM (GMT 0)
Ed, is 58 still your current age, or does that need updating? Was trying to figure out an answer based on your age.

My oncologist also feels that most BCR tends to show its ugly head in the first 1-3 years, though has seen rare cases of men being 10 years out before it happens. So I feel you are past the "normal" danger point for quick BCR. In my own case, with one tiny positive margin, BCR post surgery was marked at 9 months, and even quicker the 2nd time post salvage surgery.

If I were in your shoes, with what you hit your cancer with, (I don't want to jinx you, lol), it would seem very likely you would outlive your cancer (if any is left) regardless. Hope and pray that is the case for you.

David
Posted 9/13/2013 11:47 PM (GMT 0)
don't try to age me David cool .  i'm still 58 for another six months cool .  I couldn't figure out how to use that nomogram that bohemond posted. 

ed

 

Posted 9/13/2013 11:55 PM (GMT 0)
Just meant I couldn't remember your age, didn't know if that were your dx age or current. Speaking of age, I see mine is off by a year, forgot to change it when I turned 61 in July.

Still looks like you are tracking to beat the monster, I am certainly rooting for you.

david
Posted 9/13/2013 11:57 PM (GMT 0)
mikey:

you and I started within a couple of months of each other, you have done very well for yourself, and I consider you cured for all practical purposes. So thankful your journey didn't take the route that mine did. Been a long time since we have been on the phone or skyped, hint. lol.

david
Posted 9/14/2013 12:00 AM (GMT 0)
I was 54 when I got here.  my diagnosis followed my first PSA test.  my doctor said that my cancer was at least 5 years old.

ed

 

Posted 9/14/2013 12:05 AM (GMT 0)
mikey1955 -- your numbers were very similar to mine. you were fortunate to not need follow-up treatment and the future looks good for you. there are a couple of other guys on this board with similar numbers who are doing fine too.



ed
Posted 9/14/2013 12:13 AM (GMT 0)
Ed - I don't know, bit I'm rooting for you. I know your spirit has beaten it already, that's for sure.

I heard 5 years was the time frame to try and clear but I think that was related to surgery.

I think that that we tend to think in terms of beating it but a plan B of managing it, even for us young guys, is certainly a viable plan.
Posted 9/14/2013 12:47 AM (GMT 0)
Ed,

When was your last HT, Lupron was it? What dose? 1 month, 4 month? Just trying to gauge when all treatments ended to give you an opinion...

Jerry
Posted 9/14/2013 12:55 AM (GMT 0)
Jerry -- I got my last shot three years ago.  IGRT ended about a week before.  the end of treatment started after completion of IGRT.  my testosterone was in the mid-500s when I got my first .2.

ed

 

Posted 9/14/2013 1:56 AM (GMT 0)
Ed,

Those are great numbers and I think the odds are in your favor....but please stay at hw,,,we need you here...
Posted 9/14/2013 3:28 AM (GMT 0)
thanks Jerry.  i'm not going anywhere cool .  my uro is optimistic but he always qualifies his optimism.  my radiation onc says my chances of remaining cancer-free are in the high 90s.  i'm thinking at the 3-year mark probably a solid 60-70%.

esd

 

Posted 9/14/2013 3:04 PM (GMT 0)
F8
Based on the numbers in your signature, the nomogram shows you are very likely to be remission free at five years. Your signature doesn't include staging, so here is how it breaks down based on the two staging choices included in the nomogram.

Pre-treatment PSA of 6.8 is given about 47 points
Gleason sum of 7 is given about 42 points
Staging: your signature doesn't say but T2a is given 12 points, T2b is given 45 points. The nomogram doesn't include T2c
External Beam Radiation is given 0 points

Based on the above and an assumption of T2a, your total points are 101, which equals about an 85% chance of being recurrence-free at 5 years.
If your staging is T2b, total points are then 134 and probability as about 75%

However your prospects may be even better than the nomogram suggests because it does not account for HT, which I would think should further improve your prospects.

I know in my own case -- different history, different nomogram-- my odds against recurrence improve notably if HT is factored in (which raises a question in my mind, which I will post separately).

I hope this helps.

Jim
Posted 9/14/2013 4:33 PM (GMT 0)
Jim -- thank you.  T2c sounds right. I appreciate you running the numbers.

ed

 

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