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MSKCC Nomogram - calling all math experts

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Posted 2/1/2015 10:31 PM (GMT 0)
L J

The MSKCC probabilities discussed in this thread apply to patients who have had surgery and no other treatment.

While the newer treatments you mentioned might be used after a recurrence, IMO they would not affect any future updates of these probabilities.
Posted 2/1/2015 10:37 PM (GMT 0)
@Doug, from what I read, I think on the MSKCC website, their Nomogram is updated every year for the most recent X number of patients or X number of years of data (don't recall what X equals.) So there is at least some effort to keep it from going stale. But yes, by definition, 10 year BCR experience must include guys who were treated 10 years ago.

@ Tex-Lee...
You said ...
"
The MSKCC nomogram gives little comfort to the worriers (count me as one) since it shows that, immediately after surgery, men age 50-70 with pre-surgery PSA's 4-6, G3+4=7 and favorable pathology, have a 18% probability of recurrence within 10 years."

Yes, I read that, and the 82% is one of the things that put me into a bit of a funk. But as someone pointed out, it means you have an 82% chance of not having BCR. Whichis probably better than our chances of a stroke, heart attack, getting hit by a bus, or any number of other things that can get us.
Posted 2/1/2015 10:45 PM (GMT 0)
Shabadoug , well stated and you are right I am aware of said tangents and did not see it that way. It was not a contest, but an exchange of theories. I feel much better now that I have been realized rather than recognized. " I see said the blind man" really. So much for reduced testosterone fogging mental capacity, Shaba….. yippee, I just got scooled scool
Posted 2/1/2015 10:54 PM (GMT 0)
Compiler, you might be better off not reading my posts, tho I would thing a mental challenge would be right down your alley. I know... they are like a train wreck to you and you just can't help yourself. Its scool!! We are still brothers, to my view...
Posted 2/1/2015 10:56 PM (GMT 0)
@ Pratoman
You said ...
"
Yes, I read that, and the 82% is one of the things that put me into a bit of a funk. But as someone pointed out, it means you have an 82% chance of not having BCR. Whichis probably better than our chances of a stroke, heart attack, getting hit by a bus, or any number of other things that can get us."

Agree that the glass is way more than half full.

As I stated in an earlier post, I still believe our 18% probability of recurrence within 10 yrs is less than the probability of a 65-70 YO being newly diagnosed within 10 yrs.
Posted 2/1/2015 11:11 PM (GMT 0)
Logo:

I eagerly read your posts, but often out of a sense of morbid curiosity.

Love ya, guy!

Mel
Posted 2/2/2015 4:43 AM (GMT 0)
Back at ya, Compiler, and I will pray that you are able to give your morbid curiosity a 180 degree turn to the right or left…no hurry…a standard rate of turn is sufficient.
Posted 2/2/2015 12:26 PM (GMT 0)
I generally trend to the left...but moderately so!

Mel
Posted 2/2/2015 3:59 PM (GMT 0)
I use the 180, be cause in so much of common parlance, folks will say 360 which while a nice delaying turn and needed at times, puts one right back where they started with a false sense of accomplishment. Again a hearty congrats on your latest results. Your Gold Compiler, yours will be chronic but not fatal, stand on on that and worry as you will. Worrying is really nothing to worry about, it keeps us human and in need. we all want to be needed, just not needy. Needy in no way applies to you. One is proactive the other not so much, but even that is needed for a breakthru…for some
Posted 2/2/2015 6:56 PM (GMT 0)
Since the call was sent out to "Math Experts" I will say that Tex-Lee seems to have confused the base function, which always increases, and its first derivative, which falls off over time.

The rate at which men recur as they approach their ten-year mark is very small but it is positive -- it can happen -- and that possibility adds a few percent to the number of men who have recurred in previous years when recurrence was more likely and the rate of recurrence was higher.
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