MSKCC nomograms: old data?

I got 54% when I ran it guessing at some of your numbers so in the ballpark. There is a note that says “If your serum PSA level was never undetectable (less than 0.05 ng/mL) after radical prostatectomy, the calculations of this nomogram will not be relevant for you.” so maybe take it all with a grain of salt.

Try the Cleveland Clinic calculator for maybe some better numbers

http://riskcalc.org/prostatecancerpredictingpostradicalprostatectomy/

The studies they use are referenced.

The major nomograms from MSKCC, JH, etc regularly add new data. Much of the data is old and that is good. The more data, the better as it improves the statistical variations and adds to the validity and reliability of the results. Somewhere on the website it should explain their methodology. You could also contact them for the info.

Each nomogram from different institutes will, of course, produce somewhat different results as each is unique to their own treatment population. Run a nomogram from each institute and compare and contrast the results.

Remember, they are not predictive as to any individual. They base the probabilities on the actual results of the people they have treated. They are very helpful, but won’t predict your actual situation.

Here is the Caveat on the MSKCC website regarding the SRT Nomogram

"Our salvage radiation therapy nomogram predicts whether a recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy can be treated successfully with salvage radiation therapy (external-beam radiation given after the prostate cancer returns). It calculates the probability that the cancer will be controlled and PSA level undetectable six years after salvage therapy. You can use this nomogram for applicable results if your post-radical prostatectomy serum PSA level was at first undetectable (less than 0.05 ng/mL) and then rose steadily, indicating a recurrence.
Results produced by this tool are based on studies conducted at large research institutions with physicians who perform a high volume of prostate cancer procedures. All results must be understood in the context of each patient’s specific treatment plan. Patients and caregivers using this tool should discuss the result with the patient’s physician."