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CDC: Covid-19 deaths projected to rise to 3000 per day, new cases to 200,000 per day

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Posted 5/26/2020 2:47 PM (GMT 0)
I've a few thoughts Bill...

BillyBob@388 said...
Of course, if Marcello Ferrada de Noli turns out to be correct... then again, who really knows?

"Who really knows?" I'd say a Swedish professor emeritus of public health sciences esp. epidemiology, and former Research Fellow at Harvard Medical School, knows more than I do. For the reasons the Swedish professor wrote about in his op-ed, I'm done talking about Sweden. It's had one of the worst reactions in the world - right up there with the UK and the U.S.

Please allow me to ask you this: if you can't even define what a lockdown is, or what a shutdown is, how do you know we had one anywhere?

Let's take Wikipedia's definition shall we?

"A lockdown is a requirement for people to stay where they are usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move freely. The term 'stay-at-home order' is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/lockdown

Now, some states did that, and some didn't. No state, that I am aware of, stopped interstate travel, so it is hard for me to believe we had any meaningful, nationwide lockdown in the U.S. You yourself told me of states that did nothing. We've had a mixed bag of measures.
Posted 5/26/2020 2:48 PM (GMT 0)
I'm wondering if Begium(very close to Sweden BTW) has done much in the way of shutdown and precautions? Because their death rate is about the worse there is at 806 per million(only San Marino is worse at 1238). However, when I look at the daily graphs, they have been plummeting since Apr 10th at 496 deaths per day to "only" about 32 now. And it has been an almost straight down slope with fewer each day except for one big spike back up to 323 on May 6th. I wonder what their story is?
Posted 5/26/2020 3:06 PM (GMT 0)

Buddy Blank said...
I've a few thoughts Bill...

quote="BillyBob@388"]Of course, if Marcello Ferrada de Noli turns out to be correct... then again, who really knows?

"Who really knows?" I'd say a Swedish professor emeritus of public health sciences esp. epidemiology, and former Research Fellow at Harvard Medical School, knows more than I do. For the reasons the Swedish professor wrote about in his op-ed, I'm done talking about Sweden. It's had one of the worst reactions in the world - right up there with the UK and the U.S. ...................

Buddy, come on. "who really knows?" was an appropriate response, seems to me. You are apparently going to take his word over every source I have been able to find regarding the death rates of various nations and US states. Do you have any source, other than this one doctor who does not present any actual numbers, that contradict the numbers for Sweden provided in the links I have provided? Every where I have looked, at several different sources, shows just a tad over 4000 CV-19 deaths in Sweden, a rate of about 395 per million, and dropping steadily with the trend being down. Of course, these sources could be lying or ignorant, I admit. Hence: "who really knows". Do you have any actual numbers/stats provided by Marcello Ferrada de Noli? I didn't see any. What I mostly saw was an opinion on the horrible treatment of their elderly. ( EDIT 1102AM Which, BTW, perhaps if Sweden did not have such an uncaring attitude towards their elderly, as your "Swedish professor emeritus of public health sciences esp. epidemiology" seems to be claiming they do, maybe Sweden's CV-19 death rates would be significantly lower, and they would be 10th or 12th rather than about 6th or 7th?)

Buddy:"Please allow me to ask you this: if you can't even define what a lockdown is, or what a shutdown is, how do you know we had one anywhere?

Let's take Wikipedia's definition shall we?

"A lockdown is a requirement for people to stay where they are usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move freely. The term 'stay-at-home order' is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/lockdown

Now, some states did that, and some didn't. No state, that I am aware of, stopped interstate travel, so it is hard for me to believe we had any meaningful, nationwide lockdown in the U.S. You yourself told me of states that did nothing. We've had a mixed bag of measures. "

Buddy, you are right, I DO NOT know that we have had one anywhere. If you know who has met your definitions, if any, then kindly provide the examples so we can see how they have done. All I know about are the examples who claim to have done little or nothing, like Sweden and a few states. Although, even that is just based on government requirements, the citizens may have taken precautions of their own to varying degrees. In fact, I'm sure they did.

Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 5/26/2020 9:56:12 AM (GMT-6)

Posted 5/26/2020 4:37 PM (GMT 0)
Billybob,
No country (or state) in the world employed the same strategy as Sweden. They are unique in the world so it will be interesting to evaluate their outcomes when we have the full picture. There are no winners in this, but for my money, I expect the countries with the most favorable outcomes (by number of deaths, and quite possibly economically as well) to include New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Australia, and more.

Sweden and all the countries I listed have something in common. They acted early and had coherent plans.

But I could be wrong. And now I am officially done discussing this. Your position is just too "locked down" and perhaps I'm guilty of the same.

Carry on, brothers, and remember when talking about the fact that most of the Covid deaths are people over 65, that this is a prostate cancer forum populated by old men.
Posted 5/26/2020 4:47 PM (GMT 0)
While there's a lot of talk about Sweden, New Zealand is pretty much the other end of the spectrum where they were so successful at locking down they seem to have completely eliminated covid-19. At the same time, I don't know how they handle that on a long-term basis--I know they are quarantining people that come into the country (except from Australia) for 14 days. Do they plan on doing that for a year or two?

My wife and I have had some of the best vacations in our lives in New Zealand, but I have a feeling that a future trip there could be difficult in a pre-vaccine world.
Posted 5/26/2020 6:59 PM (GMT 0)

GrizzlyBear said...
Billybob,
No country (or state) in the world employed the same strategy as Sweden. They are unique in the world so it will be interesting to evaluate their outcomes when we have the full picture. There are no winners in this, but for my money, I expect the countries with the most favorable outcomes (by number of deaths, and quite possibly economically as well) to include New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Australia, and more.

Sweden and all the countries I listed have something in common. They acted early and had coherent plans.

But I could be wrong. And now I am officially done discussing this. Your position is just too "locked down" and perhaps I'm guilty of the same.

Carry on, brothers, and remember when talking about the fact that most of the Covid deaths are people over 65, that this is a prostate cancer forum populated by old men.

Grizzly, I think you are wrong about me: I don't really have a position regarding what is the correct course of action regarding locking down to prevent the spread of this deadly virus, vs the damage to the economies that people depend on for their living, health care and health insurance. All I'm doing is pointing to ways in which it has been done differently, and raising the question: Is the path most countries and states have been on really the right path, or not? Frankly, I don't know, at least regarding the shutdowns. I'm not all that "locked down" on it, I am just raising questions regarding if it has been worth the price of the economic damage it has caused, or not. Maybe it has, but I'm not sure. I certainly point out some situations which indicate maybe it is not the right approach, but I am certainly not sure, and future results may prove that it was the right approach.

The only thing I am "locked down" about is not what most places have been doing, but something NO place has been doing. That is, they have not been doing it, and they should have. Recommendations they have NOT been making, and information they have NOT been sharing, but they should have. Now THAT I am locked down about, and disgusted with. Because I think it is quite possible that if they promoted, or informed about, these other things, there might not even have been a need for a lock down in the first place, deaths would be rare. And it would be helping a good bit with all the deaths from regular flu at the same time, and maybe even other health related concerns. I think about that every year when I hear about all the deaths from flu despite the flu vaccine they all pound the table for, but they never mention these other approaches as things to do along with the flu shot. And, it appears they are never going to. In the meantime, the general public waits hopefully for that Covid vaccine one day, when they could be already doing something proactive and which would likely greatly increase their odds, whether they were locked down or not. If only some one in authority would tell them.

But hey, Grizz, before you leave this conversation, I was just thinking about you! I don't want to hijack the thread, but I just found out something I would have never believed: They have brown bears(essentially a Griz) in the European Alps. There is a video out today of one of hem following a little boy on a hike in the Alps. And Reinhold Messner, the famed Everest mountaineer, had one of his Yaks attacked by one(in the Alps), and at least one man was attacked and injured by one. Made me think of your name.

Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 5/26/2020 1:03:23 PM (GMT-6)

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