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3/11: Implications of COVID-19 for patients with pre-existing digestive diseases

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Ulcerative Colitis
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Posted 3/15/2020 1:37 AM (GMT 0)
This is why things are being canceled or closed. The important thing is to “flatten the curve” of the disease so that so many people aren’t ill at the same time and overwhelm hospitals. We simply don’t have the ICU beds and ventilators and supplies to handle too big a spiked curve.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html
Posted 3/15/2020 2:43 AM (GMT 0)
What scares me is the new or resurgence of superbugs from the hypervigilant overdisinfecting by the common folk.
There be a price for the insanity.

q
Posted 3/18/2020 12:44 AM (GMT 0)
in Poland there are warnings on TV all the time that people should avoid ibuprofen: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-19-nsaids-ibuprofen/
Posted 3/18/2020 1:43 PM (GMT 0)
in Poland there are warnings on TV all the time that people should avoid ibuprofen:

So many TV shows here in America are sponsored by Big Pharma that I am not sure TV ads like that would be possible here in America.

The U.S. is one of the few countries in the world that allows prescription pharmaceuticals to be advertised on TV. At least special interests haven't yet pushed Congress to drop the requirement to list the possible side effects of drugs at the end of these TV ads.
Posted 3/18/2020 2:22 PM (GMT 0)

IamCurious said...
in Poland there are warnings on TV all the time that people should avoid ibuprofen:

So many TV shows here in America are sponsored by Big Pharma that I am not sure TV ads like that would be possible here in America.

The U.S. is one of the few countries in the world that allows prescription pharmaceuticals to be advertised on TV. At least special interests haven't yet pushed Congress to drop the requirement to list the possible side effects of drugs at the end of these TV ads.

I've always found those adverts annoying. And unethical.
Posted 3/18/2020 2:28 PM (GMT 0)
OK, I was a math and computer science major back in the day, so I tend to look at numbers, especially as they relate to drawing conclusions based on statistics.

So here are the latest numbers from NPR:
(source here https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s )

6353 confirmed cases, 108 deaths, for a death rate of about 1.7%, which at first glance is much higher than the flu (which has killed 18,000 people so far this year)

But modelling of disease transmission (see https://www.geekwire.com/2020/scientists-find-86-percent-coronavirus-infections-go-unreported/ ) estimates that 86% of cases go undetected because they are mild.

So that means that in the United States there are likely many more infections than have been reported. If the 86% number is correct, the actual number of infections is approximately:

6353/.14 = 45,380

so the death rate would be:

108/45,380 = .0024, so .24%, which is not much worse than the seasonal flu.

I personally agree with the steps being taken at the moment because the uncertainty is high, however we need to be willing to adjust our response as new concrete facts about the pandemic come forward.

Feel free to question my numbers if you think they are wrong.
Posted 3/18/2020 2:59 PM (GMT 0)
Does anyone know (maybe even the authorities don’t know?) once you’ve had the virus and recover— are you immune to this strain? Or is it possible to get it again? Just curious.
Posted 3/18/2020 3:31 PM (GMT 0)
I saw a health expert on the news last night say that they don't really know yet.
Posted 3/18/2020 4:06 PM (GMT 0)
The numbers might be right but in europe our health services are rapidly becoming overwhelmed by the emerging cases, that's why many countries are, to a greater or lesser degree, on lockdown.
Posted 3/18/2020 4:46 PM (GMT 0)

poopydoop said...
The numbers might be right but in europe our health services are rapidly becoming overwhelmed by the emerging cases, that's why many countries are, to a greater or lesser degree, on lockdown.

Those numbers only look at deaths. It could be that significantly more people get sick enough to require a respirator than with a regular flu. They ultimately survive, but require hospitalization. In fact they may die if hospital care is not available because the system is overwhelmed.

I'm not sure why our government, at both the state and federal level, isn't pushing for a ramp up in respirator production.
Posted 3/18/2020 5:30 PM (GMT 0)

C_G_K said...

Those numbers only look at deaths. It could be that significantly more people get sick enough to require a respirator than with a regular flu. They ultimately survive, but require hospitalization. In fact they may die if hospital care is not available because the system is overwhelmed.

I'm not sure why our government, at both the state and federal level, isn't pushing for a ramp up in respirator production.

Yes that would make sense. I live in a little country (the netherlands) and there are currently 575 beds available for coronavirus, of which 171 are being used. The gvt has said there is capacity to increase to 2000 beds but still, that barely sounds enough if cases continue to increase at the same rate. We only had our first case 3 weeks ago! There are also shortages of face masks and gloves etc at the hospitals, and joe public keeping a stash at home only makes things worse..
Posted 3/18/2020 6:52 PM (GMT 0)
I wonder if in Italy, most of the people that died didn't get the necessary medical treatment, and would have otherwise survived. That's what it sounds like from news reports and why we hear so much about flattening the curve. Seems like it was in a small geographical area and the medical facilities got overwhelmed with so many cases happening at the same time.
Posted 3/18/2020 7:20 PM (GMT 0)

C_G_K said...
I wonder if in Italy, most of the people that died didn't get the necessary medical treatment, and would have otherwise survived. That's what it sounds like from news reports and why we hear so much about flattening the curve. Seems like it was in a small geographical area and the medical facilities got overwhelmed with so many cases happening at the same time.


One of the factors that made Italy struggle is having an "old" population, i.e. many cases over 60. If you compare with south korea where the death rate is more like 0.6%, most of the people with a positive diagnosis are in the age bracket 20-29. But still, I don't doubt that some of those in Italy who could not get a hospital bed could have been saved.
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