ChristianWithLyme said...
Do the current tests (antibody and pcr) only test for CV-19 or do they pick up other coronaviruses? The CDC says that the antibody test could pick up other coronaviruses. CDC appears to indicate that the viral test (I presume pcr) would not do this.
I don't know I guess that would be one cause of a false positive test result.. each test should have known rates of false positives and false negatives. I don't think other coronaviruses would be able to trigger a false positive everytime, though.. I believe the test is looking for antibodies that are specific to sars-cov-2, and I assume those can be differentiated from antibodies to other coronaviruses.
If the fear is then that new flare ups could at least partially be attributed to other, less dangerous coronaviruses coming in waves of their own.. this would theoretically be caught by comparing antibody and PCR test results from the same localities..
ChristianWithLyme said...
But now we're learning that the pcr could be picking up old infections or a small piece of something (at 50-90%). Doesn't seem right to include all these perhaps old infections as "new cases". Have we ever with a pandemic included people who were asymptomatic, barely any virus, and non-infectious in the case numbers?
As far as I know, patients eventually do clear RNA of the virus so that PCR no longer comes back positive (unless they die). If they are testing positive for the first time, then we should be counting them as a new case. If they test positive and never produce symptoms, then we learn more about
how many patients infected are asymptomatic. It's all data and we have to take whatever we can get. No, we have never tracked common cold viruses in this way.
ChristianWithLyme said...
I know it's argued that CV is so contagious but is it really compared to other viruses/colds? Other viruses/colds spread around the world. If we were to test for other viruses/colds with pcr, would we come up with same number of "cases" when compared to CV? Just contemplating all this.
Contagiousness is measured as R0 or "R-naught". For herd immunity to take effect, infected individuals need to be infecting less than 1 other person on average, or less than R1. Seasonal flu is R1.3. Last estimate I've heard for sars-cov-2 was above R2. Values lower over time due to aquired immunity and behavior changes.
We don't bother tracking most other viruses so closely because the illnesses they cause are not as serious as covid-19.
ChristianWithLyme said...
Quote from twitter (@kerpen):
"Putting 30+ amplification cycle PCR tests in the case count is the same category error (past vs. present infection) as putting antibody positives in the case count."
Maybe that is comparable- I don't know... Does it really matter as long as the cycle threshold stays the same? ..and as long as the protocol for classifying antibody tests as positive stays the same? If those are adjusted and it's unannounced, then I would share in your concern that this data is being manipulated.
ChristianWithLyme said...
Another twitter quote (@DCMom2020):
"Lyme disease advocates have tried for years to get the CDC to change the way positives are read. Their requirements are ridiculous. Complete opposite of what they are doing with Covid. It underscores how data is manipulated. Bob, you need to address this. @CDCDirector."
Different objectives. We're trying to track the spread of a new contagious disease, not justify treatment (or non-treatment) of an illness.
ChristianWithLyme said...
The more I learn, the more I am convinced that terms like "presymptomatic", "contact tracing", "social distancing", etc. have been invented in order to advance an agenda.
They might be new to us, but they aren't new to science. The period when infected individuals appear to be the most contagious is a couple of days before symptom onset to a few days after. Those who never develop symptoms may not be very contagious, if at all. Those who go on to develop even very minor symptoms, are probably very contagious.
ChristianWithLyme said...
Now, look at Sweden and the US. The US is criticized for not locking down as stringently as some other countries but our cases and deaths have come down in states that have not locked down as much. Sweden barely has any deaths now. What is the explanation for this? Perhaps it is herd immunity.
I'm sure acquired immunity is playing a role but I don't think they have reached herd immunity. Most areas outside of Stockholm were not hit very hard. Swedish citizens have generally been following distancing guidelines without an enforced shutdown. They don't call each other "sheeple" for doing so either. Experts seem to think things will get worse for Sweden and everyone else in the fall/winter as more time is spent indoors. We'll see what happens...
ChristianWithLyme said...
Also, I believe even the CDC says that exposure to a past coronavirus could give you more immunity to CV. Knowing this, wouldn't exposure to CV give us better immunity to future viruses? Why is it now that they want everyone to hide and not be exposed? If you're vulnerable, be careful, but if you're healthy, I would say be exposed in order to protect yourself and others.
The less vulnerable inevitably spread it to the more vulnerable. The path the experts have chosen is to try to keep as many people from being exposed as possible. I don't even think Anders Tegnell of Sweden would say otherwise. We're having a really hard time trusting the experts in the US.
ChristianWithLyme said...
Germany's deaths may not have surpassed that of a flu season (typical or perhaps severe). My main focus with his video was where he talked about the test being used. If I recall correctly, he had concerns about the test like if test indicated danger or like what the test was measuring. Old chart for Germany comparing years:
https://twitter.com/destatis_news/status/1263774179360477184
Interesting. Is that because they kept exposure so low though? This article was posted a few pages back and it has more info on other countries..
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries