When is PSA most likely to rise?

Does anyone know of any research that looks at when PSA is most likely to rise following RRP, if it is going to rise? In other words, if someone makes it past a year, does that make recurrence less likely? What about two years? Five years?

I attempted to purchase life insurance after my surgery, and was told to re-apply in 3 years. Usually the insurance guys know the stats so I assume the most likely period would be in the 3 year window.

I know several people here who had surgery more than 15 years ago and are still getting zeros. One man I know had his come back at the 2 year mark and had radiation. His original surgery was 18 years ago, and he is still doing great. There is a lot of hope - keep looking up!

RB

Age 61
Original data - pre-operation
PSA: 5.1
T1C clinical diagnosis, Needle biopsy - 10 cores, Gleason 7 = 3+4 in 1 core (40%), 7 cores Gleason 6 = 3+3 ranging from 5% to 12%
All scans negative
Lupron administered 4/9/2008 for 4 months (with idea I would undergo external beam radiation followed by seed implants - then I changed my mind).
Robotic DiVinci surgery - Dr. Fagin (Austin) May 19th
Post operative - pathology
pT2c NX MX
Gleason 3+4
Margins - negative
Extraprostatic extension - negative
seminal vesicle invasion - uninvolved
1st Post PSA <.04

Rapid PSA rise in the first 10 months indicates metastases: ie the PC was not confined.

PSA rises that are slower and after 2 years usually suggest a local recurrence that can respond to salvage treatment.

As suggested, probabilities depend on diagnosis and surgery lab report.

I asked the same question at my one year visit. The surgeon believes the 2 year mark is significant for the recurrence of prostate cancer, and he did mention that 10 years is the ultimate goal to have undetectable PSA's, at only one year out, this seems like an eternity!!
Randy