Tony,
Although they're stated inversely Han & MSK are close (Han is a bit better) in my case. My urologist stated he thought of my chances were ~50% of having undetectable PSA post RP...clearly he's using other prognostic tools. At 34 days I was 0.03 and he thought that might be due to my focally positive apical margin. But 0.02 worth of PSA 34 days after RP could be several things.
All of this comes back to the question benefits of ART for T3a folks. Some evidence indicates ART at very low PSA is better than SRT begun with slightly elevated PSA. How much better? Debatable.
I'll be getting ART every day at 5pm after work - the rad onc said he expects I'll do well due to my age (50) and condition but I might feel a bit tired and of course there's the bodily functions issues :(
Mostly, I'm basing my ART on the recommendation of my docs, the NCCN and a few studies. The rad onc did say the largest benefits for me were expected in the long term (cure?) but that he said that was 50/50. It all seems a bit murky as far as clear evidence of efficacy. Given my relative young age even 10 years is definitely not near long enough. ART will improve my chances even though there's no way to really know by how much.
K2
Han Table calculator
Progression-Free Probability After Surgery
2 Year 94%
5 Year 87%
7 Year 84%
10 Year 80%
MSK calculator
Probability of Biochemical Recurrence
(detectable PSA level) at
3 years after surgery: 8% (3-21)
5 years after surgery: 15% (5-33)
7 years after surgery: 19% (7-45)
10 years after surgery: 24% (9-54) ?