Redwing,
the TOAD study had been criticized before pooling the TOAD data with the ELAAT data.
a) Its underpowered:
LinkFakhrejahani et.al. said...
This trial planned to enroll 750 patients within 5 years but enrolled only 293 men in 8 years in 29 public and private centers across Australia and New Zealand and Canada.
b) The result is statistically insignificant:
LinkBrand and Parker said...
Median follow-up was just 5 yr and only 40 deaths were available for analysis—26 in men randomised to deferred ADT, and 14 in those randomised to early ADT. This difference was not statistically significant (PSA-relapse group, adjusted hazard ratio: 0.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.26–1.30, p = 0.19). Furthermore, only 18 of the 40 deaths were from prostate cancer, and there was an imbalance between the two trial arms in nonprostate cancer deaths. In the early ADT arm there were eight deaths from other causes, compared with 14 such deaths in the deferred arm. It is counter-intuitive for early ADT to have a beneficial impact on nonprostate cancer mortality; if anything, one would expect the opposite. Taken together with the lack of statistical significance, it is clear that any difference in overall survival is consistent with the null hypothesis and the play of chance.
c) There is a very diverse patient group included:
LinkFakhrejahani et.al. said...
One noteworthy limitation of the study was that some patients with metastatic disease were enrolled on the trial and were included in the final OS analysis which showed a statistical difference between two groups. These findings are misleading and do not inform the management of BCRPC [bio-chemical recurrent prostate cancer]. When the metastatic patients are excluded from the analysis, leaving only the BCRPC patients, there was no statistical difference in OS between the two groups of patients.
In the
TOAD study the authors state:
Duchesne said...
We plan to combine these data for men with PSA-relapse with the parallel Canadian ELAAT study to increase the strength of the evidence.
As mentioned in my previous post above, when the data of the TOAD study is pooled with the ELAAT study, this shows there is no significant result! So you may delay the start of lifelong ADT without bad conscience.
George