Fake web news reports on the coronavirus (OT)

Buddy Blank said...
Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html?guccounter=1

“Our American hospitals have had very little room to take on increased capacity,” Makary said. “Most ICUs function at full capacity or near full capacity. We only have 100,000 ICU beds in the United States. We could see 200,000 new patients that need critical care up to 2 million.”

My friend JNF, do you know something this Johns Hopkins professor doesn't? If so, please share with us brother, assuage our fears. I warned earlier of the lack of hospital beds, this Johns Hopkins professor - who knows far more than I do - echoes my warning.

The 500,000 already with it, sounds about right. I've read that once community transmission is happening, it implies a certain % of the general population must have it.
I also worry about the number of icu beds. My own guess is this is why there's so many deaths in Italy - hospital system is overwhelmed and can't cope.

Post Edited (jasperx10) : 3/13/2020 7:23:51 PM (GMT-6)

Stephen S said...
If 500k people have it now, why arent the emergency rooms teaming with patients?

I do not believe the 500k number.

I think that number is highly suspect.

80% of people display few symptoms. 15% develop symptoms more severe, 5% develop critical symptoms.
Because of the limited testing going on, many will be in hospital diagnosed with 'flu', 'pneumonia', etc. Some will have died with this recorded cause. This was reported in several spots. I think I also remember it been mentioned to Congress in a recent report.

Post Edited (jasperx10) : 3/13/2020 9:54:02 PM (GMT-6)

Stephen S said...
If 500k people have it now, why arent the emergency rooms teaming with patients?

I do not believe the 500k number.

I think that number is highly suspect.

We've no way of knowing.

Here's the Johns Hopkins doctor's CV. He doesn't come off as a sky-is-falling the-end-is-near nutcase to me.
https://www.jhsph.edu/faculty/directory/profile/1565/martin-a-makary

The top health official of the state of Ohio estimated there were 100,000 people with the virus in Ohio. The governor of Ohio believes that figure.
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus

So, if anything, the Johns Hopkins doctor's estimate is low, real low.

To me, everyone should be tested. Then we know with certainty.

This is very good news, if it pans out.

Dutch Erasmus MC finds anti body. Research is up for peer review. Human trials expected.
https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19/comments/fietp4/dutch_erasmus_mc_finds_anti_body_research_is_up/
https://www.erasmusmagazine.nl/2020/03/13/unieke-vondst-in-erasmus-mc-antilichaam-tegen-corona/

Erasmus MC and Utrecht University find antibody against corona

A group of ten scientists from the Erasmus Medical Center and Utrecht University say they have found an antibody against the coronavirus, reports Erasmus Magazine.

To our knowledge, this is the very first antibody that we know blocks the infection and there is a good chance that it will also become a drug on the market," said Professor of Cell Biology Frank Grosveld. It has yet to be tested on humans, which takes months.

The publication about the find is at the discretion of colleagues, after which it may be published in the leading trade journal Nature. "Prevention is better than cure, of course," says Grosveld. "A real solution is therefore a vaccine, others are working on that. However, developing a vaccine takes two years."

Actual research paper in English:
A human monoclonal 1 antibody blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1

The emergence of the novel human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China has caused a worldwide epidemic of respiratory disease (COVID-19). Vaccines and targeted therapeutics for treatment of this disease are currently lacking. Here we report a human monoclonal antibody that neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 (and SARS-CoV). This cross-neutralizing antibody targets a communal epitope on these viruses and offers potential for prevention and treatment of COVID-19.

Update Seattle:

NY Times columnist Nicholas Kristof: A hospital in Seattle area has sent out a note to staff, shared with me, suspending elective surgery and warning that "our local COVID-19 trajectory is likely to be similar to that of Northern Italy." The hospital is down to a four-day supply of gloves.
https://twitter.com/nickkristof/status/1238618948272259073

And a confirmation of sorts from the Seattle Times:

Seattle-area hospitals cancel elective procedures in response to coronavirus outbreak
Hospitals across the region are canceling elective surgeries and procedures in response to the growing number of people infected by the new coronavirus.

Seattle Children’s hospital, which halted elective surgeries Thursday night at its Seattle and Bellevue campuses and will stop doing procedures on Monday, made the move to preserve the protective gear needed for helping virus-stricken patients and for urgent and necessary surgeries.

“We are taking this action to preserve Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and to maintain social distancing standards, which minimizes potential exposures for patients and workforce members,” said Sonja Hanson, a hospital spokesperson.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/seattle-area-hospitals-cancel-elective-procedures-in-response-to-coronavirus-outbreak/

Post Edited (Buddy Blank) : 3/14/2020 6:49:48 AM (GMT-6)

Amen Wilderness, amen.

We must reduce the R0 to 1, then this will burn out. That means social distancing, good hygiene, etc. - everything the medical experts have advised us to do.

Where are you anyway? Ohio? If you practiced social distancing for some time, I wouldn't think you've been exposed, but who knows?

every state is now infected.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html?action=click&module=relatedlinks&pgtype=article

covid-19 isn't going away in a few days or a week. or even a month. i won't be going to the gym for the forseeable future and i will curtail going to 12-step meetings. i am at risk but being a bonehead also risks others.

Most patients in ICU in Netherlands under 50 years of age
https://www.rijnmond.nl/nieuws/193054/meeste-coronapatienten-op-ic-zijn-jonger-dan-50-jaar

Interesting stat.

Stephen S said...
If 500k people have it now, why aren't the emergency rooms teeming with patients?

I do not believe the 500k number.

I think that number is highly suspect.

********
hard to know since we elected for a third-world approach.

In the last few hours, the PA Governor has shut down all non-essential businesses in several counties, including both where I live and neighboring counties.

Glad I made it to the grocery this morning. I wonder--will my Urologist appt for the 25th be cancelled?

At his office. I expect I'll get a call on Monday. No, it's not critical--it's my 5 yr since surgery visit.

The SOB, and any others like him, that hoarded supplies that people need should be in jail.

When I lived in LA and we had the Northridge quake people were charging crazy money for bottled water etc. Real scum, bottom feeders, the lowest of the low.