Odds of being diagnosed with PCA

What are the odds of being diagnosed with PCA based on common demographic info such as family history, age and ethnicity?

What are the odds of having a positive PCA diagnosis for a caucasian man, age 41 and no family history of PCA? The answer is "very, very small odds", but I'm looking for a more quantitative rationale.

The closest thing I could find was this page: https://zerocancer.org/learn/about-prostate-cancer/facts-statistics/, but I can't see how to combine the data there to answer the question above.

Gedman

The odd of being diagnosed with PCA are really low if you never have a PSA test

http://www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com/seven-prostate-cancer-risk-calculators

There are very few PCA cases diagnosed under 50 years old (except those you see on HW) so the statistics are probably hard to develop with any accuracy. The chance of other causes of death is much greater and should be of more concern under 50.

If you run the first calculator above, it starts at age 55 and says around 6-7% for no history or urinary symptoms if that helps any.

Most “odds” calculators require age, race, PSA and DRE results to attempt a probability extrapolation as without that data, it is just a wild guess. Family history and race are big influences on the odds (2X) also.

4 out of 10 chance of having prostate cancer at age 41? I think we'd see a ton more guys then with prostate cancer. Anecdotally, I would guess that it's <5% of the guys on Healingwell are in their 40s. It also seems like the chances of prostate cancer as you get older wouldn't be a straight line. I would presume it would curve up the older one gets, although I have no data to back that up.

BTW, I couldn't get the link to work...

What I'd always heard was that the percent chance is equivalent to your decade of life, so 40% in your 40's, 60% in your sixties. But with most PCa being slow growing, those guys in their 40's and 50's have no idea that it might be growing in there. My PSA had been checked every year, and I was 61 when my GP informed me that it had "crossed the line" at 4.0 and said that I should see a urologist.

Unfortunately that was 2012, and I knew nothing about the task force recommendations... I took my uro's word that it was nothing. I won't get into that again, not today. But my point is that perhaps once we hit that 50% likelihood point, the volume and grade of cancer becomes significant, and urination becomes more difficult, and physicians are reluctant to actually look for cancer in a man who is likely to die from some other cause within a decade or two.

So after my cancer was finally confirmed - and treated, I told my thirty-ish sons that they should get checked by the time they reach forty, to have a baseline, especially given my own family history. Now I don't know if that will actually make any difference. As luck would have it, BOTH of them now have other cancers. Our older son has been fighting acute T-cell leukemia since March and is prepping for a donor bone marrow transplant next month. The younger one had a small bowel resection in late June and just started FOLFOX chemo this week. Each of them has about a two in three chance of surviving another five years.

We pray that some of the COVID travel restrictions will finally be lifted...hopefully sometime by year end, so that we will be able to see our sons once more. This has been incredibly difficult.