New model predicts control of the pandemic, if we all just do a few things (Article)

DjinTonic said...


Only if you can call the middle of Brooklyn rural, Gary

Djin

LOL....my formative years were in Brooklyn also (Brooklyn Technical High School), but summers were wonderfully spent in a totally different environment, on my grandparents farm in southwest PA.

Gary

If you passed the entrance exams for both, compiler, that's impressive.

Tech was for men, 6,000 at a time back then, Stuyvesant seemed wimpy. Trust it all worked out for you.

https://apnews.com/a3e99384b955d60f4c0fd7c738c6b2a8
"Aug. 20, 2020.............Despite these statements, the senators write that FDA’s actions on HCQ have “led to misinformation and confusion across the country. Some states have restricted the ability of physicians to write and pharmacies to fill HCQ and CQ prescriptions.”

The senators ask the FDA to provide the Committee, by Aug 25, with all information pertaining to FDA decisions that discourage the outpatient use of HCQ for early treatment or prophylaxis of COVID-19, and also “any public statements or records that FDA has issued to clarify that the FDA does not regulate the practice of medicine and that state governments may not regulate the sale or prohibit the sale of prescription drugs.”

“The licensed physicians we have heard from… have pointed to the low mortality rates in other countries—like India, Turkey, South Korea, and Morocco—that are using HCQ widely on outpatient COVID-19 populations before the disease progresses to more lethal stages of the virus that require hospitalization.”

The senators conclude: “Physicians taking care of patients in our communities across the country must be free to make the best medical and treatment decisions for their patients, use their ‘off label’ prescription rights, and have full access to FDA approved drugs.”

AAPS has represented physicians of all specialties in all states since 1943. The AAPS motto is omnia pro aegroto, meaning everything for the patient.

Contact: Jane M. Orient, M.D., (520) 323-3110, [email protected] ".

This HCQ argument will undoubtedly rage on for some time to come. On the one hand, we have evidence of success in India, Turkey, South Korea and Morocco as well as the endorsement of the Demon Sperm Lady. On the other hand we have the CDC, NIH, WHO and FDA who do not recommend the drug for COVID citing undesirable side effects as well as lack of efficacy for helping COVID patients. I guess time will tell who is right.

Jim

Infectious Diseases Society of America (ISDA): hydroxychloroquine shouldn’t be used at all for Covid

"IDSA now recommends not to use hydroxychloroquine either by itself or along with the antibiotic azithromycin for patients with the coronavirus, even in hospitals. The society previously called for limited use of hydroxychloroquine in trials."

Bloomberg story -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-21/hydroxychloroquine-shouldn-t-be-used-at-all-for-covid-isda-says
IDSA Guidelines -> https://www.idsociety.org/practice-guideline/covid-19-guideline-treatment-and-management/

And the beat goes on...

Buddy Blank said...
Infectious Diseases Society of America (ISDA): hydroxychloroquine shouldn’t be used at all for Covid

"IDSA now recommends not to use hydroxychloroquine either by itself or along with the antibiotic azithromycin for patients with the coronavirus, even in hospitals. The society previously called for limited use of hydroxychloroquine in trials."

Bloomberg story -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-21/hydroxychloroquine-shouldn-t-be-used-at-all-for-covid-isda-says
IDSA Guidelines -> https://www.idsociety.org/practice-guideline/covid-19-guideline-treatment-and-management/

And the beat goes on...

Yes it does! From the Bloomberg article:
"Hospitals should drop using the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine altogether to treat Covid-19 patients, even if it’s in a clinical trial, according to new medical guidelines..............The Infectious Diseases Society of America revised its Covid-19 treatment guidelines Friday, toughening its stance against the use of the anti-malarial drug that’s been widely touted by President Donald Trump as a way to deal with the pandemic.

IDSA now recommends not to use hydroxychloroquine either by itself or along with the antibiotic azithromycin for patients with the coronavirus, even in hospitals. The society previously called for limited use of hydroxychloroquine in trials......................
“IDSA’s expert guidelines panel concluded that higher certainty benefits (e.g., mortality reduction) for the use of these treatments are now highly unlikely even if additional high quality data would become available,” the group said in a statement.

Earlier, a National Institutes of Health panel recommended against using hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin, unless in a clinical trial, because of an increased risk of cardiac arrest. The agency halted its own clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine in June.

Trump Says Warnings Against Anti-Malaria Drug Were Political "
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So, they found "an increased risk of cardiac arrest", contradicting the latter results by Henry Ford Health, who -though they were aggressively looking for exactly that- saw zero heart related issues in their couple of thousand patients. (Also, didn't the study that had to be retracted also show heart problems?) So I suppose one of them is right(or both?), but we also have the long, long history of this drug being prescribed around the world, with apparently acceptable safety parameters, at least until Trump brought it up. Whether coincidental or not, that seems to have been the end of it for this country, at least regarding the big authorities like NIH, Fauci, etc.

But then we have Switzerland, with 1/2 our over all death rate. And I can't help but wonder about Sweden, with their current 1 death/day average, 26 people in the entire country of 10+ million sick enough for ICU. Are they using it? I don't know. And India with their 30 deaths per million death rate, and where they definitely use it. There seem to be a whole bunch of countries where use is common, which also have done a heck of a lot better than the countries that severely limit it's use have done(including USA). But, I suppose all those countries might be wrong and we might be right. Could be.

I certainly don't know. Maybe Henry Ford Health was wrong. As Tudpock says, time will tell. But I am between a rock and a hard place. I want it to work because physicians are more likely to consider a presription drug than they are IV vitamin C or the HCQ like supplement Quercetin with zinc, which I take(NOT advising anyone do the same!). But OTOH, if it turns out it was actually helpful, then that will be some terrible news for all of those who were denied it. I'm sure they will be asking "For what?". If it turns out to be even a little helpful, that is going to be a nightmare for some folks. So, no good news there either way. Some good news would be nice.
https://techstartups.com/2020/07/23/countries-using-hydroxychloroquine-low-coronavirus-fatality-rate-compared-countries-dont-association-american-physicians-surgeons-says/

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/countries-that-use-hydroxychloroquine-may-have-80-lower-covid-death-rates/

Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 8/22/2020 5:59:25 PM (GMT-6)

logoslidat said...
A few shots of Father Johns cough syrup with a Moxie chaser...thank you very much...give me that old time religeon...

And let us all say "Amen".

logoslidat said...
A few shots of Father Johns cough syrup with a Moxie chaser...thank you very much...give me that old time religeon...

I'm having a variation on that med right now, just before breaking the 23 hour fast with supper. But the name of this variation is "White Russian". Controlled, randomized trials show it works very well indeed.

Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 8/25/2020 6:19:42 AM (GMT-6)

Michael_T said...
I'm trying to imagine what the control group beverage would be for a White Russian.

The control group would be admittedly challenging to design. ;)

Now, how about those masks? I wear them for other folks psychological benefits, not certain about the disease prevention benefits, but maybe. I have stated months ago that I wasn't going to get CV-19, or maybe I did already had it but I was asymptomatic or mild symptom? I did have some sniffles try and attack me once or twice in recent months, maybe a hint of sore throat, but all symptoms quickly dissipated. But just in case it is of a benefit to others, and so that I won't set some one off because I don't have a mask, I wear them when out in public.

OTOH, I wore a mask every working day for over 36 years while I was in the OR administering anesthesia. Oh well.
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.cd002929.pub3/abstract
"
Selection criteria

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi‐randomised controlled trials comparing the use of disposable surgical masks with the use of no mask.
Data collection and analysis

Two review authors extracted data independently.
Main results

We included three trials, involving a total of 2106 participants. There was no statistically significant difference in infection rates between the masked and unmasked group in any of the trials. We identified no new trials for this latest update.
Authors' conclusions

From the limited results it is unclear whether the wearing of surgical face masks by members of the surgical team has any impact on surgical wound infection rates for patients undergoing clean surgery."



https://pubs.asahq.org/anesthesiology/article/113/6/1447/9572/is-routine-use-of-a-face-mask-necessary-in-the
"

Anesthesia personnel are no longer required to wear disposable face masks in the operating room, a practice approved by our surgical colleagues. Surgeons, their assistants, and scrub nurses are still required to wear masks.

Face masks are worn by all operating room personnel when treating patients susceptible to infections as in neurosurgery, vascular, and orthopedic procedures involving implants and regional anesthesia procedures (e.g. , spinal or epidural). Face masks are also used to protect staff from contamination. All personnel wear face masks when taking care of trauma patients or patients with blood-borne infections.

Our decision to no longer require routine surgical masks for personnel not scrubbed for surgery is a departure from common practice. But the evidence to support this practice does not exist, and studies to establish differences in infection rates with or without face masks will likely be difficult to design and implement given the small potential effect."

Buddy Blank said...
I guess if the masks came with IV vitamin C, or perhaps some Swedish meatballs, they would be cheered?

No doubt.

Also both interesting and hopeful. Crazy, or not? Check out some of the graphs.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=0750d8a505abc78573336fd8b9b94ce68abb6f1b-1599569090-0-aeefcgma1aqesndzafjbuvkyjwig1osztumaui76rfifjwy1fgzk-vpqyuxol4yqar-vtmmhys9i3fqfyd8h2jzjkjunuvg0tjtx9xc9mx-zdpb_33rfdacfu1zklfi3l434rxcbcd4ljerbv4ory0ditztu9om8wao0ubith9i8ip2q7kddhrpw9w-kqg_4_j6v3c12a43qd1uiec5jsufnh5_jw62mghufr9fgtilr-dn7fpsosqwdppybaywrb3limid3sdgpxpvdwegoiqgshbdyijltilx4ttche8txbyvnjrstufo_y9v4wrbxga

Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 9/8/2020 6:42:21 AM (GMT-6)

Buddy Blank said...
OffGuardian is an antivax, conspiracy theory crank site, that has minimized the pandemic since Day One. No one there has the slightest of medical credentials........................

I could go on and on with them.

They're kooks.

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So then, when I asked " Crazy, or not?", your vote is clearly crazy? I just thought some of the graphs were interesting, if they are not false.

Maybe not enough coffee.