Miami has 30 months worth of condos sitting due to Covid

What next? Between the pandemic, and the riots, property values are going to take a hit.

https://therealdeal.com/miami/2020/08/21/a-buyers-market-condo-supply-soars-in-downtown-miami/

So a couple of things...
First, regarding the article, they say “the 30 months worth of condos” figure, is based on sales closed between January and June. I’m nit a statistics professor, but that has to be a depressed number. It assumes the real estate market just won’t come back. I think it will, and like travel, restaurants, and everything else crushed by Covid that brings joy into our lives, the pent up demand will be off the charts. JMHO.

Second, with the above said, I’m guessing that high inventory of real estate can be said about any large city market right now. I know in NYC proper, I.e. Manhattan, coop prices are down considerably since the beginning if the year. But in the suburbs, like Long Island, Northern Jersey, etc where everyone suddenly wants to live, Homes are selling fast, above asking prices, and there is very little inventory. So this whole thing has two sides.

I think it will all normalize in a couple of years. Some things, like the way we work, will be changed forever. But some things, like so many people wanting to live in NYC, or Miami, will get back to the way they were. People have short memories.

depends where you live for sure. in my specific part of western s.c., still a seller's market. house next to mine, was flipped and put back on market, and it sold for its full asking price in 24 hours, with a list of disapointed potential buyers in hand. my last boss lives in a ritzy area (compared to me), and most houses there sell in 1 to 3 days on the market.

Purgatory said...
depends where you live for sure. in my specific part of western s.c., still a seller's market. house next to mine, was flipped and put back on market, and it sold for its full asking price in 24 hours, with a list of disapointed potential buyers in hand. .

I feel bad for the sellers to have such a poor agent! With a list of disappointed buyers in hand, a good realtor should have been able to leverage a couple of points on the selling price.

I'm in San Diego County....no down turn in the market here. Our first home could sell for more than 2x (around $520/sf) what we bought it for at the bottom of the market in 2011 ($225/sf). And, while we haven't gotten an appraisal, it is likely our recent home has increased 10% since we bought in October of last year. And that is San Diego prices

Personally, I wouldn't want to be a commercial real estate owner right now. With all the WFH, who needs office space? And that may not come back for a LONG time.

On the other hand, my daughter who lives in Brooklyn is starting a search for an apartment. This might be an absolute optimum time for that.

But, since this is a Buddy thread....yes...the end is near.

Yes Ed, I agree that the pandemic can't be blamed alone. I look at it as a match that lit the box of dynamite.

There are a lot of weird things going on in the current economy. Single family go,se are selling really well as the super low interest rates promote up grading.

The stock market is super hot because of the low interest rates and pie in the set assumptions for a V shaped recover.

The problem is local and state spending is based on budgets completed in 2019. When the 2021 budgets are completed this fall local and state spending will likely decrease 15%. That means construction, maintenance and services. Then we will find out what the economy really looks like likes when billions disappear from local govt spending in each state. In Ohio as an example you can expect $30 billion to instantly disappear from the economy.

"The stock market is super hot because of the low interest rates and pie in the set assumptions for a V shaped recover."

#############

i'd say the V recovery is the mother of all bear market rallies. the market is rallying because of trillions of dollars of liquidity that have no where else to go to get a return.

we are all old enough to remember savings accounts whereby you'd put your money in the bank and get a 5% annual return. millennials never heard of a savings account.

I'm spending 75K on remodeling my house as I write... It'll sell for three times what I paid for it 14 years ago.

The fun part will be moving south of Tampa and getting something for a decent price.

As someone raised in Miami Beach I would no sooner buy a place there than in.... than in... well pretty much anywhere that's flat and on a coast. But the outlook is especially grim down there. My parents' house that I sold in 2005 is maybe 4 feet above sea level. I can remember the storm surge flooding the street and right up to our front porch during a couple of hurricanes. And that was in the 1960s.

I have friends who tell me that water regularly comes up through the manhole covers at high tides. And forget about a 'cane hitting the place now. My niece recently bought her condo on the Bay, 6th floor. She's getting ready to kayak out her front door.