From CDC: COVID vaccine priority recommendations: who gets it first

I will get the vaccine as soon as I can. Getting an appointment given our older population in SoFL, and with all our visitors, is difficult.

Two points. First the 'science' about the vaccine, like the 'science' about COVID and PCa, is far from irrefutable, and like everything thing else under the sun, is constantly evolving. Much of what I've heard and read is that the first shot yields 75 to 80% protection rate in the first month. This is important because....

Second point. The reserve doses 'being held back' that have been a political debate about releasing, include the second shot for those who have already had both the first shot and an appointment for the second one. The incoming President has promised to release the reserves the day he takes office. This could result in second shots, most of which have already been scheduled, being delayed as more folks get their first shots. Not certain, not disastrous, better than nothing for those still waiting, so something to be aware of.

The 'science' will have lots of varying, changing and evolving opinions on this. The law of unintended consequences. Good luck and stay safe(er).

So are conspiracy theories.

Here's a question: I live in PA and work in NJ. Which state do I get the vaccine in?

Where ever you can Hal. Sign up in both and take the first one available.

Thanks, Ken. Amazingly it was as easy for me as Cleveland Clinic calling me, with a cancellation they had for this afternoon, asking, "Did I want it?" Hell, yes! I got my first shot, with no apparent side effects, so far. I have no clue what caused the call. My oncologist and cardiologist are there, but I haven't spoken to either one.

I have to agree with the overall disappointment with state and local governments being terribly ill prepared for the distribution and administration of the shipments they knew were coming. Most politicians, at every level, are excellent at vitriolic, after the fact, yapping and finger pointing. They were too busy with elections to lead or help set up distribution cannels and rules, and they haven't a clue on how to proactively plan anything. It doesn't matter what party they are in!

This update from AP today:

<<<Biden said he has a virtual meeting later Monday with his virus team and planned to outline more of his pandemic response plan on Thursday. His transition team has vowed to release as many vaccine doses as possible, rather than continuing the Trump administration policy of holding back millions of doses to ensure there would be enough supply to allow those getting the first shot to get a second one.

Biden's goal is to protect more people, more quickly, his team announced last week. The plan would not involve cutting two-dose vaccines in half, a strategy that top government scientists recommend against. Instead, it would accelerate shipment of the first doses and use the levers of government power to provide required second doses in a timely manner.>>>

Hoping for the best, but expecting nothing more than the 'rediscovery of the obvious'.

Here in our small Georgia town, they are now offering over 65 as they have vaccinated all first line who wanted it. Not all did. Rural counties are getting Maderna as not many smaller cities having the capability to keep Pfizer at -70. I'm on the list to get mine when they get next shipment from state later this week. But does concern me that changes in holding reserves and releasing all, there might be a shortage when second shot is due within 28 days.

JNF said...
As I remember the trials showed only about 50-60% effectiveness for the first shot with some differences between Moderna and Pfizer. The shots are generally 2-3 weeks apart. So what happens if you have a shot in January and don’t get your second till June do to supply and logistics? No one knows as that wasn’t tested and couldn’t be tested due to the very short initial trials. We know these vaccines are likely going to be at least annual going forward as the initial information is we might only get that much protection or less from the vaccine. But that hasn’t been tested either as not a long enough period of time has passed.

Jack, i have read that after a few weeks the first shot (dont recall if it was Pfizer or Moderna) can give up to 75-80% efficacy. However i read on (i think) the Moderna website, that the first shot gives on average 52% immunity. The Moderna 2nd shot is given 28 days after the 1st, and the Pfizer is 3 weeks after the 1st. That data is based on the how the trials were done.

garyi said...
Thanks, Ken. Amazingly it was as easy for me as Cleveland Clinic calling me, with a cancellation they had for this afternoon, asking, "Did I want it?" Hell, yes! I got my first shot, with no apparent side effects, so far. I have no clue what caused the call. My oncologist and cardiologist are there, but I haven't spoken to either one.

I have to agree with the overall disappointment with state and local governments being terribly ill prepared for the distribution and administration of the shipments they knew were coming. .

Glad to hear that Gary.
And yes, the rollout was not at all what it should have been. States should have had the infrastructure build out and the planning done way before approval which they knew was coming

Pratoman said...
I'm pretty sure i heard today, that the Trump administration is asking states to NOT hold back vaccines for the second dose. My opinion, bad idea, the science says second dose to be given in prescribed trial. There is enough that we dont know about this vaccine, now we are adding the unknown of how a delayed second dose (possibly) might affect efficacy.

I saw that on a fox news notification about an hour ago that the administration will be releasing the doses they were holding back.

Pratoman said...
I'm pretty sure i heard today, that the Trump administration is asking states to NOT hold back vaccines for the second dose. My opinion, bad idea, the science says second dose to be given in prescribed trial. There is enough that we dont know about this vaccine, now we are adding the unknown of how a delayed second dose (possibly) might affect efficacy.

Yes, but that has been the President-elect's position for some time. The Trump people seem to be implementing Biden's plan. This from CNN:

<<Washington (CNN) The Department of Health and Human Services is expected to announce sweeping changes Tuesday in vaccine rollout guidelines in an effort to boost the lagging number of vaccinations in the first month -- effectively adopting the approach proposed by President-elect Joe Biden's incoming administration.

The Trump administration plans to release reserved second doses immediately, a senior administration official tells CNN. The official expects reserved doses to be distributed over the next two weeks.

The move comes after Trump administration officials recently disparaged Biden's plan to do the same.

"If President-elect Biden is calling for the distribution of vaccines knowing that there would not be a second dose available, that decision is without science or data and is contrary to the FDA's approved label," Operation Warp Speed spokesman Michael Pratt said Friday in light of Biden's announcement. "If President-elect Biden is suggesting that the maximum number of doses should be made available, consistent with ensuring that a second dose of vaccine will be there when the patient shows up, then that is already happening."

The new plan would also change guidelines to allow vaccinations immediately for anyone anyone 65 and older and would help states set up mass vaccination sites should they request assistance. The administration wants to shift focus away from hospitals and focus more on adding more accessible venues, such as pharmacies, the source said.>>

Pratoman said...

paulmerc said...
For the different age groups, the 65+ group had overall final effectiveness of less than 80%, uncertain how low their first shot effectiveness could have been. If past flu vaccine effectiveness is any guide, I would put the 70-80+ year demographic population for even a 2nd shot at probably well under 80% overall. And yet, people run around saying “95% effective!”.. this just is not true at all and I’m VERY concerned with this 70+ population come April or May 2021, when they think that they are now “immune” and have some shield of invincibility and start to travel and let their guard down - well, you know where that is going to lead sadly.

Paul, from what i read, i believe on the Moderna website (i will try to find it and post later if i do), .....
overall effectiveness for Moderna was 94.1%
Efficacy for under age 65 was 96%
Efficacy for age 65 + was 85%. This group was 25% of the cohort of the phase 3 trials

Yes, I think Moderna was the only one that gave this additional detail, at least a couple weeks ago.. So, I’m still thinking 70+ is sadly going to be probably under 80%, as it tends to fall with age.

Post Edited (paulmerc) : 1/12/2021 1:10:36 PM (GMT-7)

Tudpock18 said...
My understanding of the vaccine release plan (Biden admin plan that is now Trump admin plan) is two fold:

1. They are not changing the recommendation that the second dose be given 3 weeks (Pfizer) or 4 weeks (Moderna) after the first dose.

2. They are now stating that they have confidence in the manufacturing plan so that ample vaccine will be available for the second dose.

I still have a little angst about how/when I'll be getting my second dose. Supposedly I will get an email a week before the shot due date that reminds me that I need to schedule an appointment rather than one being provided for me automatically. Hope that works....

Jim

Excellent clarification in 1. and 2. That is my understanding as well. I still expect/hope to get my first vaccine by the end of March. In the meantime, it's a monkish life.

JNF said...
Montee, where in Georgia are you?

halfway between Macon and Savannah, Swainsboro