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Brain Teaser - if you like numbers

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Posted 5/12/2013 11:55 PM (GMT 0)
Ok, I've wondered for some time what the odds were for 2 events that happened in my life:

1.  Losing a house and getting critically injured (my wife) in a tornado...in southcentral PA which never has these types of twisters.

2.  Getting PC at 44; bone met at a technically undetectable PSA (.09).  How many cases like this have you seen?

- so for starters:  1 in 6 men will get PC;

Just curious, because I'm wondering if the odds are like winning the Powerball lottery?

 

Posted 5/13/2013 12:06 AM (GMT 0)
Jerry, I had a bone met with a PSA of 1.2 (after RRP and IMRT).  The Doctor said that a bone met below PSA of 3 was 10,000 to 1.   Boy, aren't we lucky .The Old Sailor
Posted 5/13/2013 12:08 AM (GMT 0)
Jerry,

Very sorry for those first 2 events, but for some reason I think you'll be coming back with a 3rd event.... that being "You Beating PCa"!!!!

I know you are in good hands!!!

adjust
Posted 5/13/2013 12:35 AM (GMT 0)
I had something similar:
1) Odds of getting PCa at 41 (with no family history)
2) 1 in 10,000+ odd of having an allergic reaction to the antiseptic used to prep my abdomen for surgery.

Boggles the mind.

-Gedman
Posted 5/13/2013 1:01 AM (GMT 0)
Jerry, you should be playing the power ball on a regular basis like I do.

When I got porocarcinoma for the first time, there were only 300 known cases ever in medical history, world wide, less than 70 cases in the U.S.

However, I got it 3 different times, my oncologist said it was like if I won the powerball for 3 consecutive weeks in a row by only buying a single number each time.

BTW, since those events, come to find out I am only 1 of 2 people known in the world to have that type of cancer in the scalp. Scary.

However, I still have never won the powerball, closest is 4 out of the 6 numbers, but I keep trying

david
Posted 5/13/2013 6:02 AM (GMT 0)
They say that one's chances of winning the lottery are equal to getting struck by lightning.
No offense, Jerry L... but, please stay out of the rain!

BTW, my nephew did get struck by lightening and he is fine. His friend that was with him and also struck, lost his hand. Needless to say, my nephew doesn't buy lottery tickets as he figures he has already met the incredible odds. :)
Posted 5/13/2013 11:12 AM (GMT 0)
The Navajo say that dancing naked in the rain will change your luck Jerry. Of course it may also change your address.

Jim
Posted 5/13/2013 12:39 PM (GMT 0)
Odds and luck have been against you, Jerry. I remember another guy here who had bone mets with an undetectable PSA.

If you flip a coin, the odds of heads are one in two;  getting heads twice in a row is one in four; three times is one in eight.  The odds on the next coin flip of getting heads is not one in sixteen, but one in two.

I don't play the lottery, which is a voluntary tax on people who don't understand math.  But in your case and David's and Old Sailor's and Gedman's, I think I'd be playing the lottery and spending some quality time in the casino.

@Gedman,  What was the antiseptic prep for your surgery?  about 1 in 10 people are allergic to iodine-based products and fewer allergic to chlorohexidine.

Posted 5/13/2013 1:30 PM (GMT 0)
old sailor: we are both kept safe from the odds by our friend PP, and we know it!

david
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