Yes, I do know why. It's because MSK uses the Stephenson nomogram. The nomogram is based on retrospective data rather than randomized clinical trial, and is statistically constrained by the data in the sample. In other words, for every nomogram prediction, there may be large variances in its predictive accuracy. Overall, the nomogram used here is accurate 69% of the time, but for your particular set of answers, the predictive accuracy may fall to not much more than a coin toss.
Stephenson said...
No prospective study has evaluated the impact of ADT in the salvage setting. ADT administered before and/or during SRT was associated with improved PSA control in our study, although this may potentially be explained by the effects of prolonged ADT (up to 24 months in some patients) on masking PSA recurrence.
He explains that because of this "Sixty-three patients (4%) received adjuvant ADT after SRT and were excluded from the analysis of PSA-defined end points." So only those patients who received neoadjuvant ADT were included in the nomogram (14% of total).
Predicting the Outcome of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical ProstatectomyAmong the decisions that fall on you is not just ADT vs no ADT; but also, if you have ADT, then for which periods and for how long - neoadjuvant? concurrent? adjuvant?
Also, they were treated with between 63-66 Gy of SRT, which most would now consider inadequate. To some extent, ADT substitutes for reduced dose.
I'm not at all saying that ADT with SRT is a bad idea for you. It's just not a "no brainer"and there is precious little quality data to inform your decision - it's very much a judgment call, with no clear right or wrong answer. It's all about
your assessment or oncological risk and treatment side effects.
- Allen