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Posted 8/23/2016 12:38 PM (GMT 0)
This is for anyone who looks at a nomogram or gets a prediction from their Dr that is not favorable.
Valerie Harper was diagnosed with Brain Cancer over 3 years ago. They told her she had 3 months to live.

She just celebrated her 77th birthday and is doing well....


parade.com/501326/lindsaylowe/still-going-strong-valerie-harper-celebrates-her-77th-birthday/
Posted 8/23/2016 1:23 PM (GMT 0)
Thank you Pratoman!!

Congratulations Valerie Harper!!!!!!!!! Rhoda!!!

Statistics are just generalizations about some attribute about some population.
Posted 8/23/2016 1:34 PM (GMT 0)
They do apply, but they don't determine actual outcomes for individuals. I have watched Valerie's tremendous results as she has clearly beaten the odds so far. I had two high school classmates that each were diagnosed as Valerie in the last four years and neither made it 15 months. They nearly exactly followed the statistics. One used the most aggressive treatment available and the other did not treat at all. Go figure.
Posted 8/23/2016 1:37 PM (GMT 0)
Ditto for Jimmy Carter.
I wonder if they both pursued the same treatment.

Didn't Carter use some new drug that is now being looked at for PC?

Mel
Posted 8/23/2016 1:49 PM (GMT 0)
Mel, I think you are correct about the drug, but I think his cancer was different. I haven't read about her treatment, but I don't think she had surgery.
Posted 8/23/2016 2:14 PM (GMT 0)
After a little Googling I found that President Carter didn't have brain cancer. He has metastatic melanoma with lesions in the liver and brain. It looks like he had surgery for the liver and used the Keytruda which has put him in remission.

I also learned that Valerie doesn't have brain cancer either. She has a rare form of Leptomengial cacinomatosis, essentially un-curable, which is a met from the lung cancer she was treated for in 2009. She is taking two drugs, Tarceva and Alimta, for treatment.

My friends each had stage 4 Glioblastoma Multiforme, a true brain cancer that is un-curable with less than 5% survival at five year. Treatment is tough with surgery, chemo and radiation.

Keytruda (Pembrolizumab) is an imunotherpy drug used for advanced melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, some breast cancers and head and neck cancer. There are several trials in progress and I have seen it mentioned as a potential for PCa. Merck holds the patent and process and it costs $150,000 per year.
Posted 8/23/2016 2:34 PM (GMT 0)
JNF:

Excellent information.

That new drug has been mentioned here as a possible breakthrough drug. We shall see. A lot of drugs are "promising"... until the trials!

Mel
Posted 8/23/2016 3:01 PM (GMT 0)
One of the important tenets of statistics is that the studies, the findings, the facts, the rules of thumb—and the nomograms—are all probabilistic, not deterministic. What that means to the individual is that medicine is all about learning and understanding and managing risk.


Another way I've phrased it that has been helpful to people is that statistics tell you whether you’re in a great big fight, a medium-sized fight, or a little fight. People win and lose all three, so it just tells you what your fighting mind-set should be. It also helps inform you what level of risk, and side-effects, you should consider accepting in your treatment.


Good for her...!
Posted 8/23/2016 3:22 PM (GMT 0)
Love that analogy, JackH!
Posted 8/23/2016 8:05 PM (GMT 0)
I probably should have totled the thread "Statistics Don't Apply to one Person"

The takeaway is just that. They apply to a cohort. Each of is is an individual. So never think it's hopeless. I mentioned in another thread, maybe the "Favorite Sayings" thread, that my mom had a favorite saying "where there's life, there's hope". She used it in the context of her battle with Breast Cancer. It kept her spirits up.

Not saying to fool yourself. Just saying Valerie Harper is a great example of why we shouldn't pay TOO much heed to what the stats say about the cohort.
Posted 8/24/2016 1:32 AM (GMT 0)
When my job was designing lottery games, I had a statistician who worked for me. Looking at one potential game, I asked, "Will anyone play a game that has 100,000,000 to 1 odds?" (Now such games are prevalent.) He responded, "For the player, the odds are binary -- either I win or I lose." I often buy lottery tickets hoping that the binary odds will someday split in my favor.
Posted 8/24/2016 1:36 AM (GMT 0)
So you're a former lottery game designer-novelist-prostate cancer researcher? Wow. Any other hyphens we can add?
Posted 8/24/2016 3:35 AM (GMT 0)
I have a long resume - I guess I get bored easily and switch careers. I've spent most of my paid career in marketing, market research, strategic planning, product development, and general management. I was very briefly a chemist. I moderate politics discussion groups at senior centers. IMHO, there is no job big enough to use all we are capable of - that's true of everyone. I think that's why I like writing: I get to play God with my own universes -- I do all the jobs. "Thaw's Hammer" was a huge project - it took years researching all the details. There are about 20 pages of footnotes at the end. It covers oncology, microbiology, mammalogy, paleontology, ecology, geology, genetics, virology, evolutionary biology, climate change, energy production systems, global communications systems, materials used in extreme environments, epidemiology, explosives, and detailed understanding of the cultures and geography of Antarctica, Rio De Janeiro, Lesotho, Australia, Taiji, Japan, Madagascar, the Falkland Islands, and other places. But in spite of all that, it is character-driven, and people are the most fun to invent.

Sorry for the digression.

- Allen
Posted 8/24/2016 2:29 PM (GMT 0)
Pratoman,
Thanks for this thread and that reminder. When I was first diagnosed, after the Doctor(I fired him) told me the prognosis, I immediately told him that I would not be a statistic, meaning I would not be defined or live as if the statistics were to rule my outcome. I have tried to believe that way ever since, and it seems to be working. I found out about nomograms and the more I found out,the more I rejected them, now I just try to not even go there. Good statistics are real, but sometimes can be skewed or slanted or misinterpreted, or just simply don't apply to some individual cases.

I do love many statistics, especially ones like batting averages, etc. And every once in a while when I might play the lottery, like TA mentioned. I do just look at it as a once chance to win, one chance to lose proposition, even though I know otherwise.

JackH-I also love your analogy, thanks for that. I see myself and my mind set to be in that "big fight". Also, thanks for improving my vocabulary ,as in "probabilistic"and "deterministic". Had to look those up, but as you explained they apply just right for this topic.

TA- You are amazing and have my vote to replace that Dos Equis guy, who just "retired" -as the most interesting man in the world!!
Keep up the good words all, and as always,keep the faith.
Wings aka Dan in So C with the wildfires smhair
Posted 8/24/2016 2:29 PM (GMT 0)
Pratoman,
Thanks for this thread and that reminder. When I was first diagnosed, after the Doctor(I fired him) told me the prognosis, I immediately told him that I would not be a statistic, meaning I would not be defined or live as if the statistics were to rule my outcome. I have tried to believe that way ever since, and it seems to be working. I found out about nomograms and the more I found out about them the more I rejected them and now just try to not even go there. Good statistics are real, but sometimes can be skewed or slanted or misinterpreted, or just simply don't apply to some individual cases.
Now I do love many statistics ,especially ones like batting averages, etc. And ever once in a while when I might play the lottery, like TA mentioned. I do just look at it as a once chance to win, one chance to lose proposition, even though I know otherwise.

JackH-I also love your analogy, thanks for that. I see myself and my mind set to be in that "big fight". Also, thanks for improving my vocabulary ,as in "probabilistic"and "deterministic". Had to look those up, but as you explained they apply just for this topic.

TA- You are amazing and have my vote to replace that Dos Equis guy, who just "retired" -as the most interesting man in the world!! K
Keep up the good words all, and as always,keep the faith.
Wings aka Dan in So C with the wildfires
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