baubbatc said...
I really just wanted to say give the people the information and let them decide, that's all.
But you can't provide info in a vacuum - you have to give context and balance. And you can't assume that every reader understands the strengths and weaknesses of the studies.
baubbatc said...
"It is important to acknowledge that there are problems even in many RCTs"
RCT are extremely important, and some aren't, Framingham for one did a near complete reversal. It hard to dispute that studies around supplements where money is a factor have additional problems.
But somehow this study on Vit D is the end-all. 5000 people, 3 years, game over.
Ok, good info, thank you. I'll write that down.
And I could have posted more that 4.
5000 people is about
as large as it gets for an RCT - how many and for how long did you want to see? They arrived at the sample size by this power calculation: "Based on an overall cumulative incidence of 6.4% (328 cancer cases for the primary outcome), the study had 85% power to detect a risk ratio of 0.70 with 2-sided 95% " This is very reasonable.
Skepticism is fine, cynicism isn't. If you see problems with this RCT, point them out specifically. You already backtracked on the one problem you noted - that the dose was too small. Do you see other problems?
The fact that you are only able to point out perhaps a handful of RCTs that were proved wrong, whereas about
95% of observational studies are later proved wrong (by RCTs) should tell you something. The SELECT RCT should have been a wake-up call. Of course, we would like confirmation of this NZ RCT, but until then, this is the best info we have. This study was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand, which is a government organization similar to NIH in the US - what is the nature of the problem you have with his funding source?
I have a whole file full of research errors - 20 years in the research business taught me what kinds of errors to look for. In my blog, I always point out strengths and weaknesses of studies I review. It is not useful to patients to paint all studies with a broad brush and throw out the baby with the bathwater.