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Posted 4/18/2020 3:12 PM (GMT 0)
First of all, regarding the other thread, yes it does look like we MIGHT be turning the corner on fighting the virus. To me, it means the social distancing and quarantining is working. That also means we should NOT let up on the gas. I think we should stay in place until about June 1st (actually, until medicos -- NOT POLITICIANS -- advise). Why risk reigniting things? I just don't understand these protesters, gathering in crowds. If anything, we are learning what works, and we are doing it.

But this new thread is for a different concern. It's related to PC! Specifically:

I am an avid investor: stocks, mostly and mutual funds and bonds and options (covered calls, mostly). The stock market volatility has gone absolutely nuts, both up and down. Every tidbit of news generates a HUGE over-reaction. Look at the latest: a supposedly successful drug (from Gideon) that worked GREAT in one small trial. Maybe I've gotten jaded, but I've followed PC research/drugs since I was dx. in 2009. How many HUNDREDS (if not thousands) of drugs have looked promising in mice and even initial human trials only to come up empty. 99%? We have a President who touts a malaria drug which has really not been proven effective. Let's hope the newest drug from Gideon is the real thing. But while so many are ecstatic, my experience with PC tempers/mutes my enthusiasm. On the positive side, dealing with a virus has always been easier than dealing with cancer in terms of developing very effective drugs/vaccines. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but as I said my PC "interest" has me jaded.

Mel
Posted 4/18/2020 3:57 PM (GMT 0)
Mel, I think you're right to be skeptical about the new drug. But I do think this also speaks to the benefits of flattening the curve in that it buys us time. I have to believe that if you get the virus in six months, you have a better chance of having some sort of effective treatment than if you get it now. And getting it a year from now, would be even better.
Posted 4/18/2020 4:23 PM (GMT 0)
Mel -

Great to hear from you! And glad to see that you still come here to the forum, although you haven't posted for a while.

You're absolutely right, if ever there was a matter where taking the proverbial leap of faith was required, believing that a new drug will prove itself is it.

And, to throw in another metaphor, it often seems that one must as well have the patience of Job, waiting for that special pill to come along that will overcome the disease.

I once knew a woman who was a real estate agent, and who was telling me one day about a property she had been trying to sell for some time, but it had various problems. She had so far shown it to dozens of prospective buyers, but no one had made an offer on it.

So I asked her if she felt discouraged, and ready to give up on trying to sell it. She answered, "Oh no, because all it takes is one, just one. When that one person agrees to buy it and the offer is accepted, then all that waiting and frustration is over, and my commission is earned!"

Sort of the same with that one special drug, that "sale" that will make up for all those "no sales."

Like my realtor friend suggested, one just has to be patient.

(She eventually did sell the property, BTW).

(Also BTW, how are you doing? If you would like to make a post, even a brief one, to update us on your situation, I know there are many here who remember you who would also like it if you did!)
Posted 4/18/2020 4:36 PM (GMT 0)
mel -- the stock market is a casino right now. reminds me of 2000. I've been out for more than two years. it's a great environment for traders but you can see that opinions on whether we've made a V shape bottom or whether we should open up the country are pretty much split down party lines. it's an election year afterall.
Posted 4/18/2020 5:20 PM (GMT 0)
Mel, Do you mean Remdesivir, the drug from Gilead (not Gideon, though both names are biblical).

It got my attention when I read that Gilead's drug Remdesivir is showing promise in treating Covid-19. I was reminded of the question the narrator in Poe's "The Raven" demands of the visiting bird, "Is there—is there balm in Gilead?—tell me—tell me, I implore!”

In Genesis, "Balm in Gilead" refers to a specific healing substance, perhaps a cure-all, produced by a plant that grows in Gilead, which was carried by merchants to the men who sold Joseph. I suppose that's how Gilead Sciences, Inc. chose its name.

It would be great if testing reveals that there is, indeed, balm in Gilead..that their drug Remdesivir can effectively treat Covid-19. Keeping my fingers crossed for this and other solutions.

Ironically, we happen to have a street here in Zion named "Gilead." All of our street names are biblical. There's also a Gideon Street.

Post Edited (clocknut) : 4/18/2020 11:30:21 AM (GMT-6)

Posted 4/18/2020 7:28 PM (GMT 0)
Some interesting things to consider concerning Gilead from an article that was pssed on to me...

Curb Your Enthusiasm on Gilead

Buying stocks on anecdotal Covid-19 patient data is a bad idea. A viable treatment for Covid-19 is desperately needed, but investors are way too enthusiastic about the latest potential breakthrough.
Stat News reported Thursday that a subset of Covid-19 patients receiving the drug remdesivir had
improved. Of 113 patients in this subset, only two had died and the majority of the others had been
discharged from the hospital. These patients are enrolled in a larger clinical trial.
Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc., GILD 9.73% which owns the drug, surged Friday in response. Since Covid-19 data readouts have implications for the entire economy as a whole, the report was likely a factor in Friday’s market rally. While that news is wonderful for the patients involved and encouraging for the general public, investors should be skeptical. The exuberance is “out of control,” Baird analyst Brian Skorney said in a note to clients. “We are cautious on interpretation of what amount to leaked case reports, given the frequency with which we have seen randomized, controlled data refute previously ‘encouraging’ data from small, uncontrolled studies.” More definitive answers about whether the drug works are unlikely until late May, he added. Another issue is that, while these patients are considered to have severe symptoms, none were on mechanical ventilators or experiencing organ failure. It is unclear whether the death rate experienced in this subset is any different from that of patients not receiving the drug. There is still no clear data on whether the drug reduces viral load in patients, which is key to understanding its true power. It is unrealistic to expect Gilead’s drug remdesivir to be useful for all Covid-19 patients.

Even if the drug helps patients get better, investors are ignoring other relevant considerations. Remdesivir is administered intravenously in a hospital setting and carries the risk of significant side effects. It is unrealistic to expect the drug to be useful for all Covid-19 patients. An effective treatment for some will be a big step forward toward a return to normal life, but won’t solve other key problems, such as insufficient testing. As for investors buying Gilead shares, any future sales would be barely significant, since the company already books about $20 billion in annual revenue. The company has committed to donating the initial supply of remdesivir if the drug proves safe and effective, which is enough to treat 140,000 patients. Its shares trade at 12 times 2019 adjusted earnings—already on the rich side for a large biotech company. That is good news for humanity. Investors shouldn’t confuse that with good news for Wall Street.

As always... do your own diligence when dealing with the market... especially during these times...

cheers

pasayten
Posted 4/18/2020 10:47 PM (GMT 0)
Mel I share your concerns.
Posted 4/18/2020 11:04 PM (GMT 0)

compiler said...
We have a President who touts a malaria drug....


It is not my intention to respond to that politically but to the reactionary nature of much of the citizenry. I wasn’t looking for any when I was at the grocery store today but noticed they were cleaned out of tonic water. Toilet paper, bottled water, yeast, paper towels, ramen...what is wrong with people? The ability to act rationally is overwhelmed by unsubstantiated fear.
Posted 4/18/2020 11:24 PM (GMT 0)

VinceInMT said...

compiler said...
We have a President who touts a malaria drug....


It is not my intention to respond to that politically but to the reactionary nature of much of the citizenry. I wasn’t looking for any when I was at the grocery store today but noticed they were cleaned out of tonic water. Toilet paper, bottled water, yeast, paper towels, ramen...what is wrong with people? The ability to act rationally is overwhelmed by unsubstantiated fear.


**********

irrational fear is magnified when people don't know what to believe. i'll leave it at that.
Posted 4/19/2020 12:34 AM (GMT 0)
And yet, in a local grocery store (suburban philadelphia) today, people were behaving themselves. Not a lot of customers in the store, abiding by store employees limiting in bound traffic, pointing folks to open registers, arrows on the floor, etc. 90% were masked (employees and customers). Yeah, are there still empty shelves? Yep....but the frantic insanity of a month ago has passed.

To Mel's point (good to see you Mel), we want an easy solution, a magic bullet that will return things to 'normal'. Well, it's not happening. This is an historical event that will split between a 'before' and an 'after'. After will be different. That little restaurant you love may never reopen. Attending a ball game or a concert will never be the same. Previously held political positions will shift for some, harden for others. Other things will be different: a whole crop of young adults will have this as the defining marker that moved them from children to adults, and who knows how that will affect things for the next 25 years? I hope we have a deeper appreciation for all the 'essential' services--and the people who provide them. Just how important to our daily lives are the UPS drivers, mail carriers, grocery store clerks, janitors, garbage collectors? And just how much do we appreciate the staff at our medical facilities--from the receptionist to the nurse to the phlebotomist to the sanitation crew or the kitchen staff?

Let's embrace the coming different--and find ways to make the best of it. That's what we do.
Posted 4/19/2020 3:03 AM (GMT 0)
I really want to hit the *like* button for Halbert's post...
Posted 4/19/2020 10:18 AM (GMT 0)
the majority of the change will move in the "proper" vector of humans continuing evolution...tho corrections will be needed due to winds...turbulence...etc...Me?...not a big fan of flatline...I like peaks and valleys...its called...counter intuitively....life ramped up in victory....if I offend...wisdom...usually does...............engage thrusters
Posted 4/19/2020 11:10 AM (GMT 0)
The best one was the idiot that said older people should be willing to risk their lives on behalf of the economy.
Posted 4/19/2020 12:29 PM (GMT 0)

Duck2 said...
The best one was the idiot that said older people should be willing to risk their lives on behalf of the economy.

Yeah, I remember that clown - what a major scumbag. This pandemic is bringing out the best, and the worst, in people.
Posted 4/19/2020 1:59 PM (GMT 0)
Thanks for the welcoming back comments. You talked me into it, so I posted a brief Compiler update.

I did mean Gilead Scientific. Oh, am I the only one who thinks about The Handmaid's Tale every time I hear that company name.
The stock action is extreme but that happens often with drug stocks, especially smaller ones when rumors of a successful trial circulates. The first bit of news that casts a shadow on the result will result in a price plunge (rapidly).

Regarding my remarks about our President, I do have to guard against crossing the no politics line, especially on the negative side. So, in the interest of adding some balance, let me say that I am very thrilled with his leadership, clarity, and unambiguous clear intelligent speech. Yep, Cuomo has been magnificent.

Mel
Posted 4/20/2020 5:34 PM (GMT 0)
I know many think things will never be the same. Well...maybe.
Some points:

1) Will this new virus become a seasonal thing, like the flu. If yes, bad news.

2) Will those that have and survive the virus be immunized. Again, we don't know.

3) If the virus keeps returning, will it keep morphing each time.

4) Will we develop a treatment?

5) Better yet, will we develop a vaccine?

If #4 and #5 are affirmative, things may augur well

Mel
Posted 4/20/2020 7:13 PM (GMT 0)
I have a feeling covid-19 will be seasonable and that it will keep morphing each season. To that extent, vaccines would only be partly effective, similar to each season's flu shot. But if you can at least partly control it through vaccines and at the same time we learn to treat the symptoms more effectively, that will go a long way toward making it manageable.
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