Containing COVID: saving lives versus saving jobs

Unfortunately, in these times, the 'people' tend to be those who shout the loudest--not necessarily those who are struggling with the questions of our times.

And, maybe, there isn't a single right answer.

*That* was an interesting article!

Economists view the world differently. They are very analytical (which I love), but they are often stuck in two dimensions as the human mind has a hard time changing more than one thing at a time and seeing the result. In this case, for example, there is another cost associated with containment/isolation that is surely present but difficult to measure. The point being it also costs real lives when you reduce economic prosperity/opportunity. I also believe we can craft a sane policy around Covid based on what we have learned over the past two months. Covid dramatically prefers older people over younger people. Given that fact it should be, in my opinion, amazingly easy to craft a policy that can protect the most vulnerable and not drive us into a Great Depression, or worse, a hyperinflationary period where the dollar becomes worthless (in which case we all suffer unimaginable trials,and will not be prepared to defend ourselves against enemies or fight even common illnesses, never mind PCa or Covid).

Sticking with the conclusion though....how do we let people decide how to trade off costs vs human lives?

81GyGuy said...
So the path we should follow in dealing with this pandemic should be determined not by directives from health experts or politicians, but by the people themselves, presumably through some reliable means of discovering the people's true choice.

People are very good at making choices given factual and timely information. So basically we need factual and timely information when it comes to Covid, and not the sensationalized, hyperventilated emotional BS we are getting in the news media.

One of the first threads on this topic someone posted a link to this website
https://infection2020.com

I look at it everyday for my county. I can see that like 55 people have died out of a population of like 450K. I can also visit my local township website and see how many people in my town have fallen ill. Combine local data like that with local hospital information (how full the hospitals are) and people will make their decisions and businesses will adjust.

Timely and accurate facts, not fear, is how we should deal with this issue. Over the past month we caught our breath. We know the enemy. We know how it works. We know ways to slow it.

Can you imagine what the world was like in 1917/1918? We were fighting a World War AND dealing with a far worse pandemic at the same time, and people were not cowering in their homes then either

Actually, people did quarantine during the Spanish flu pandemic.

Spanish flu killed 675k Americans. the majority of deaths was in the second wave. the U.S. population was less than a third of what it is now. we didn't have the tools to see the virus much less effectively fight it.

a lot has changed since then.

I believe this to be (for the most part) a fairly financially solvent group. (Could be wrong)

The “haves” and the “have nots” may have differing opinions on when to reopen.


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Post Edited (island time) : 4/26/2020 4:53:28 PM (GMT-6)

Buddy Blank said...
I will laugh - call it gallows humor - if the idiots that run things open up, and the virus sweeps through those that are stupid enough to go back to work, unprotected, and it cuts them down like wheat.

I understand.

I've learned that a professional colleague and business rival, about my age, passed away on Friday--no warning. I suspect Covid-19. Sigh.

Not wanting to fan the flames, but I think more time should be spent on the concept of "Balance."

I'm in Illinois. By our governor's own crowing, we were the second state to close down. Now, based upon his moaning and posturing on TV, we may become one of the last states to go back to work. Doesn't make enough sense to me. He continues to stamp his foot and say that we cannot re-open the economy until we have this, and this, and this, and this. . . yet he has absolutely no idea when these things will become attainable, much less widely available. From his rhetoric, it would seem that he would prefer to keep the state locked down until treatments and vaccines are widely available. (I would bet that he gets this from Dr. Fauci, who, to my limited knowledge, has never had anything remotely reassuring to say.)

First, the concept of "shelter-in-place" does not avoid infections in the short run. It does delay them, but unless something changes while one is locked down, their odds of infection remain the same once they go back out as said chances were before lock down. The only way this dynamic would change is if there was a cure or treatment released within the lock down period, and we know that isn't going to happen soon.

Second, "shelter-in-place" does serve the purpose of slowing the accrual of new cases. This IS important if the local health care system is in danger of overload. If the system is not near overload, then there is adequate health care for all patients, why wait? In Illinois, the Dept. of Public Health publishes the statistics for usage/consumption of medical capacity by region. We are now near the peak of corona cases, and the healthcare system has not exceeded 60% of capacity. Where's the overload? Again, why the need for continued spreading of the new case load if the area has more than adequate capacity?

I am NOT in favor of simply "opening it all up" but the governor's recent "concession" to open state parks and golf courses sounds to me like "see, I did something" but it is most certainly not of any benefit to the general state economy, nor is it of any benefit to the vast majority of citizens of the state. (Most are not golfers, as evidenced by the large number of golf clubs filing bankruptcy. The nearest state park to my home is nearly 100 miles away.)

Again, back to my opening premise - Balance. I am venting because I live in a state where the governor is uber-cautious and is a bend-over-backwards politician who will pander to his supporting voters at the expense of the state's economy. Absent any firm participation from Washington, I don't see Illinois opening its economy to any major degree until late summer, at best. They they will wonder "Why isn't our economy flourishing like the other states?"

Now, I'll step down from my soap box. Mods - if this is too inflammatory, please delete with my apology.

Great article on opening up. It talks about the UK but people with good imaginations can apply to the Anyplace, USA.

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This Is What Could Happen If The Coronavirus Lockdown Was Lifted Tomorrow
Two weeks of celebration would likely be followed by a second – potentially larger – wave of Covid-19.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/this-is-what-could-happen-if-the-coronavirus-lockdown-was-lifted-tomorrow_uk_5ea2910fc5b669fd8922796b

With the death toll surging to record highs and still no evidence that herd immunity can work, the government is forced to reintroduce the lockdown. But whether this would be partial or full is yet another difficult decision with no certain answers.

“It’s useful to look at other countries that have lifted lockdowns – places like Singapore and Japan,” says Jephcott.

“They had to bring that back quite quickly when case numbers shot back up again, and that will probably be the case here.”

The Japanese island of Hokkaido was quick off the mark to introduce a three-week lockdown but was hit by a second, far larger peak when it was lifted.

Dr Kiyoshi Nagase, chair of the Hokkaido Medical Association, told Time Magazine: “Now I regret it. We should not have lifted the first state of emergency.”

Here in Montana, sheltering-in-place is something we know how to do as we do it every winter.

That said, we are starting a 3-phase opening. As we have not had that many cases, and half the state has had none, we can probably get away with it if remaining careful.

Germany's shelter in place was so successful that many people are blaming the government for overreacting. you can't please whiners....they always want it both ways! but at least in germany they don't storm the statehouse with AR-15s.

As I re member...I mentioned somewhere that existence is and always will be a " Sophies Choice "...instead of moaning and " groining "...work it...stop disguising fear of your own precious(yes you thrive on fear )mortality as sympathy/empathy.for others...ignore me at will...but truth/wisdom are incessant and persistent nags...umm whiners posting about whiners...thats rich...work it...>>>>>>>>>>>fiddlers fiddling as their fiddles burn...