CDC: Covid-19 deaths projected to rise to 3000 per day, new cases to 200,000 per day

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned.

The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system grew overloaded.

“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned.

The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system grew overloaded.

“While mitigation didn’t fail, I think it’s fair to say that it didn’t work as well as we expected,” Scott Gottlieb, Mr. Trump’s former commissioner of food and drugs, said Sunday on the CBS program Face the Nation. “We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point. And we’re just not seeing that.”

“While mitigation didn’t fail, I think it’s fair to say that it didn’t work as well as we expected,” Scott Gottlieb, Mr. Trump’s former commissioner of food and drugs, said Sunday on the CBS program Face the Nation. “We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point. And we’re just not seeing that.”

Some states that have partially reopened are still seeing an increase in cases, including Iowa, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas, according to Times data. Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska also are seeing an increase in cases and reopened some businesses on Monday. Alaska has also reopened and is seeing a small number of increasing cases.

While the country has stabilized, it has not really improved, as shown by data collected by The Times. Case and death numbers remain stuck on a numbing, tragic plateau that is tilting only slightly downward.

At least 1,000 people with the virus, and sometimes more than 2,000, have died every day for the last month. On a near-daily basis, at least 25,000 new cases of the virus are being identified across the country. And even as New York City, New Orleans and Detroit have shown improvement, other urban centers, including Chicago and Los Angeles, are reporting steady growth in cases.

The situation has devolved most dramatically in parts of rural America that were largely spared in the early stages of the pandemic. As food processing facilities and prisons have emerged as some of the country’s largest case clusters, the counties that include Logansport, Ind., South Sioux City, Neb., and Marion, Ohio, have surpassed New York City in cases per capita.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=spotlight&pgtype=homepage#link-7b42d0f5

Estimates are just that. But, one thing remains true - the virus is still here and will be for a long time and life will be different. The numbers in many states are still climbing and will continue unless everyone practices social distancing, mask use when out, and good hand hygiene. I for one, do not plan on dining out, going to the theatre, or attending any type of activity where people can congregate for a very long time and at least throughout the next flu season. Too many aren't taking this seriously and think it should be business as usual. Unfortunately, 1918 tells us a different story. We all need to make choices and turn our view to the welfare of all and not just the individual.

Unfortunately the Coronavirus is here to stay. Until we build up immunity naturally or with a vaccine it will kill some of us. Just facts. There is no guarantee for when an effective vaccine will be available. A gift from China that just keeps on giving. The blame is not with any political party or group in this country.

Post Edited (Terry's Cellar) : 5/11/2020 7:20:30 PM (GMT-6)

Fairwind said...
You would do well not to put to much faith in any of the C-19 numbers being tossed out, regardless of their source..There is just too much bad information out there..

Today, the president said this in the press briefing.

"I think one of the things we’re most proud of is this just came out, deaths per 100,000 people, death. So deaths for 100,000 people, Germany and the United States are at the lowest rung of that ladder. Meaning low is a positive, not a negative. Germany and the United States are the two best in deaths per 100,000 people. Which frankly, to me, that’s perhaps the most important number there is."

Per Statista.com, the US is 9th worst of 140 countries with a death rate of 242 per million. Germany is 14th with a death rate of 91 per million.

In absolute numbers, the US is first with 81,000 Covid deaths, the UK is second with 32,000.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure there are no numbers anywhere to support the president's claim on this "most important number there is."

The pandemic will end economically before it ends medically.

Indeed, the process of ending it economically started when “critical” businesses were declared and progresses as more businesses open. I agree with Hslbert, this will be at the expense of many lives.

This is the way it has worked in all past pandemics ..... fortunately, in this one we may have flattened the curve and we can medically scrape by.

The U.S. Treasury can't afford to put 100 million people on unemployment for very long...We can't just keep printing money and handing it out....In my opinion, Covid-19 has such a very low death rate that all this fear and loathing and media hysteria is simply not justified..

BTW Fairwind is correct...little good that will do...those ideas are the first to go...scythes sweep a broad brush umm now where are my rose colored glasses...it might as well be viewed in technicolor...why wait for the movie...the book is wrriten and always better...do I frighten ...good...fear is the predator and the prey...of our Brave(sarcastic droppings) utopian woild...

Well, China is apparently locking down again. Re-infections? Second wave? Much more to learn about this virus.

island time, yes, and what about the 400,000 who die per year from tobacco use? Of course, I would be all for smokers having to wear masks.

So, a certain leader has announced he uses hydroxychloroquine. This will undoubtedly cause some people to harm themselves.

Where's Garry Trudeau when you need him? I used to love the tours he took inside Ronald Reagan's brain.

Pratoman said...
The big difference is that heart disease and disease from smoking is at least somewhat under our control. We have no control over the virus.

First sentence, I agree in the sense that many deaths could be prevented by a change in our lifestyle which is under our control.

I believe we have some control over different ways of avoiding contracting the virus and also how our bodies react to the virus when we are infected.

We have learned a lot in the last 3 to 4 months about Covid 19. A lot more is to be learned before the pandemic is under control. One important way to lower infections is to avoid crowded, interior spaces with poor ventilation. Outside open areas according to the experts, have a much lower possibility of transmission as long as there is appropriate distancing, and this has been proven in a number ways over the last few months.

Data from health authorities, have stated that the less pre- existing medical problems an infected person has, greatly reduces the chance of hospital time and possibly death which in your first sentence you alluded to. The only thing you did not mention was on top of heart disease and smoking, there are dozens of preventable medical conditions that we do have control over which people die from to the tune of over 1,000,000 every year, pandemic or not.

One last thing, whether we agree with the political nature of the announcement from the White House or not, the news briefing stateing that the reason the death toll in the USA was so high from Covid, was because of the high numbers of pre-existing medical conditions in minorities and in the the general population as a whole.

Dave.

Fairwind said...
The U.S. Treasury can't afford to put 100 million people on unemployment for very long...We can't just keep printing money and handing it out....In my opinion, Covid-19 has such a very low death rate that all this fear and loathing and media hysteria is simply not justified..

we will print our way to prosperity. this is where we were headed anyway. no need to pretend anymore, comrade.....



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1hclbtd5rm

Our local Japanese market doesn't deliver, so we ventured into it for our only market visit since this began. It made me somewhat nervous as well. That said, from what I understand grocery shopping can be fairly low risk since you're not exposed for very long. Still, I plan on continuing to rely on grocery delivery for the foreseeable future.

I have my annual physical for this Friday. I'm concerned about going into the doctor's office since that involves more detailed (and closer) interaction during the exam. As of now, I plan on keeping the appointment.