Texas reopened early, here's the result

This won't end until 40% of the population has been infected and recovered or 40% of the population has been vaccinated..

Methods in place today are designed to SLOW the rate of infection to the point where medical facilities are not overwhelmed..They have worked better than expected as only in isolated locations have ER's and ICU's been pushed to capacity..

For measles, the vaccination rates needs to be between 93-95% to establish herd immunity, while for polio it's 80-86%. I certainly hope it's a lower number for covid-19...but even 70% could be a tough target to reach in a timely way. And let's hope that we end up with a vaccine that's more like the measles vaccine (one and done) vs the annual flu vaccine.

Tim G said...
. Anti-vaxxers are a force to be reckoned with. .

This probably sounds harsh but if we have an effective vaccine and the anti-vaxxers don't get it but then get the virus I don't feel as bad as I do if and when someone else gets it. I do feel really sorry for their children however...

Jim

Make the Covid-19 vaccine mandatory, tie it to taxes, or something equally painful - the heck with the antivaxxers.

Post Edited By Moderator (Tudpock18) : 6/10/2020 4:55:43 AM (GMT-6)

It's never been clear to me that a CV vaccine is something to be excited about, or even hopeful for. As has been mentioned innumerable times here, a vaccine may be no more effective than a flu shot. Flu shots are often not effective, and they are over-promoted in my view (I do get a flu shot every year). Last year 47% of Americans got flu shots. A lot of people don't trust flu shots - and I'm not talking about anti-vaxers. I'm talking about rational people. I can't tell you how many people I've known who say they had a bad experience with a flu shot, and refuse to ever do it again.

Personally, I don't want to be in the first batches of people trying out a new vaccine. I just sense that a vaccine is misplaced hope, at least for a few years anyway.

Mattam, I agree with your take. I do flu shots each fall, but still seem to get a cold/flu every winter. My guess a vaccine will be a step forward, but hardly a game changer. I expect that I will be wary of this virus for the rest of my life.

My wife and I went to the local Black Lives Matter march on Sunday afternoon -- about 300 people over about 3 miles through town- we were clearly the oldest coots in the parade - bringing up the rear - one with short legs and the other (me) with a gimpy knee. But we both wore surgical masks and kept well away from other marchers (if only because nearly all of them were in front of us). We will both get flu shots as soon as they are available, but being of a certain age, we need to have the high-dose shots that are designated for seniors. Otherwise we are obsessive about hand cleaning, etc. We keep 70 percent alcohol spray bottles with us when out of the house for spraying car door handles, steering wheel, etc. and spraying door knobs, etc. when returning home. I see pictures of people in crowds tightly packed - with and without masks - and in that I see the sure road to the surge to come.

Great discussion. I have been away for several months, all is well for me here. Thirteen years out from surgery, five years out from salvage radiation- no signs of PC. Back to CV19, My wife and I are very cautious - isolation, hand washing, and masks. We have three 90+ year old parents that we are dealing with and children and grandchildren who are extremely isolated. So far the good Lord has shielded us. We are traveling to see two of the parents next week. We both were tested last night and will get results before we travel on the 800 mile car trip next week. Travel all in one day, no hotels, no flights.
These are certainly draining days for many. I can hardly imagine how difficult it must be for some who are dealing with initial diagnosis of PC on top of all the other issues currently surrounding daily life. This site is extremely important to those friends. The knowledge and support found here can make the journey less traumatic. Just reading about someone who has been down a similar path helps. Blessings for today for each of you. I pray that you will be strengthened and find hope for the challenges that are placed along your way. Please continue to share your story, it helps each of us in our dealings.

As we begin to open up, I'm curious about what people think their personal chances of contracting covid-19 are? To the extent that we end 2020 with 10% of the population being affected (I'm pulling that number out of the air), I assume my chances of getting it this year are <10%, since I'm not in any sort of front-line job and I'm naturally more sheltered in my everyday life--even without taking pre-cautions.

But to the extent that covid-19 becomes a seasonal flu-like disease with only a semi-effective vaccine, then maybe I have a 30-40% chance of getting it in my lifetime? Maybe higher? I realize there's so much we don't know at this stage, but very interested in what others think the long-term chances of infection could be.

Michael_T said...
As we begin to open up, I'm curious about what people think their personal chances of contracting covid-19 are? To the extent that we end 2020 with 10% of the population being affected (I'm pulling that number out of the air), I assume my chances of getting it this year are <10%, since I'm not in any sort of front-line job and I'm naturally more sheltered in my everyday life--even without taking pre-cautions.

But to the extent that covid-19 becomes a seasonal flu-like disease with only a semi-effective vaccine, then maybe I have a 30-40% chance of getting it in my lifetime? Maybe higher? I realize there's so much we don't know at this stage, but very interested in what others think the long-term chances of infection could be.

This is a difficult prediction to make. Except for a weekly trip to the grocery store where they require masks and strictly limit the number of people in the store to allow for social distancing, we are sheltered in place.

I hadn't thought about the vaccine becoming annual like the flu vaccine, but you may be right about that. Life will never return to what is was before CV-19. Masks will become a way of life; handshakes and hugs will go away; hygiene and social distancing will be practiced in public places like restaurants, medical and dental offices; more employees will work from home, and so on.

The factor that concerns me about those times I am in a public place is what I call for lack of a better word, the Jerk Factor, that is, others who don't abide by the new social rules of mask use and social distancing, thereby putting others at risk. Asymptomatic CV-19 carriers are a dangerous unknown factor in all this.

Tim G said...

Life will never return to what is was before CV-19. Masks will become a way of life; handshakes and hugs will go away; hygiene and social distancing will be practiced in public places like restaurants, medical and dental offices

Tim, I live in SW Florida where we have been reopening and loosening things for weeks now. I had to go to Home Depot yesterday and I came home and told my wife, "there is no pandemic at Home Depot". I estimate only half of the employees had masks and ALMOST NONE of the customers; I literally felt like the Long Ranger. Our restaurants are bustling again, many of the grocery store patrons don't wear masks (2 weeks ago it was 90% mask wearing at Publix, now I think it's more like 30%) and the partying has begun. Time will tell how this works out but the Florida case rate is now going up at a 45 degree angle...

JIm

"The Last Man on Earth"
"The Omega Man"
"I Am Legend"

I liked all of them, but I think my favorite is the Vincent Price one.