Interesting article on the CDC website, in which researchers extrapolate from current data, to guesstimate what things like cancer distribution, frequency, demographics, etc., might look like by mid-century.
No big surprises, but since CDC people are the authors, perhaps its predictions have some credibility.
Some highlights:
" ... the increase in the number of incident cases and deaths reflects, to a large extent, the impact of a growing and aging population. This demographic trend is expected to continue as a larger proportion of the Baby Boom and Gen X cohorts survive to older ages compared with earlier generations and enter the age groups most at risk for a cancer diagnosis."
"The total number of (cancer) cases is predicted to increase by 49% from 1,534,500 (2015) to 2,286,300 annual cases (2050)."
"The largest percent increase was projected for adults aged ≥85 years followed by adults aged 75–84 years (Figure 1). In 2015, it is estimated that 842,200 (55%) of cancer patients were diagnosed at aged ≥65 years. In 2050, we predict that 1,446,000 (63%) of all patients diagnosed with cancer will be aged ≥65 years, an increase of 603,800 annual cases from 2015."
"The top 4 cancers (female breast, prostate, lung and bronchus, and colon and rectum) accounted for 49% of all incident cases in 2015 and are projected to account for 46% of all incident cases in 2050."
"The largest absolute and relative increases in incident cases are expected in female breast (123,900; 52%), prostate (82,300; 43%), colon and rectum (67,900; 50%), and melanoma of the skin (48,000; 63%)."
"Over the next several decades, we predict the total number of cancer incident cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) to increase by nearly 50%, from 1,534,500 in 2015 to 2,286,300 in 2050. As the size of the US population increases, incident cases are expected to increase in all age groups, but the largest percentage increases will occur among adults aged ≥75 years. Over this period, overall cancer risk is predicted to stabilize in women (1%) and decline slightly (−9%) among men. Thus, the increase in the total number of incident cases will reflect primarily demographic changes related to a growing and aging population." (NOTE: despite reading through all of the article, I found no explanation given for the 1% for women and the 9% for men figures).
"The demographic components underlying the increase in incident cases are being driven initially by adults born between 1946 and 1964 (the Baby Boom cohort)."
"The projections in this study assume that cancer incidence patterns will continue largely unchanged for the next few decades with the 4 leading cancers (female breast, prostate, colon and rectum, and lung and bronchus) accounting for just under 50% of all cancer cases."
" ... the SEER data covered 14% of the US population, which tended to be more urban and have more foreign-born individuals compared with other parts of the US. As a result, incidence rates based on data from SEER found that 14 areas differed somewhat from data based on National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) areas, with prostate incidence higher and lung cancer incidence lower.
"Our projections make it clear that, to mitigate the impact of a growing and aging population, a substantial, robust, and coordinated focus on primary prevention is needed. If these efforts are to have any significant impact on the number of future cancer cases, they must be implemented immediately, owing to the long latency period for many cancers."Also mentioned were the usual caveats about
the impact that future changes in demographics, improved health care availability, and population size, as well as major treatment advances, could have on these projections.
It would indeed be interesting to be here in 2050 to see how many of these CDC predictions came true, and whether, thanks to advances in treatment options and improved health services, some of the numbers actually turned out to be better than what was originally predicted.
https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/21_0006.htm