say Barrets does become cancer

As any cancer, I believe if it's found early your survival rate goes up.

I'm surprised nobody knows the exact statistic...that'd be the first thing I'd ask my Dr. if I got Barrets.

information about your question can be found at the end of a thread you started a week or so ago called "can you have a lifetime of barretts and no cancer"

as was said above no on can say for sure the outcome for any individual

but the statistics for the overall population...or odds...as you asked for above, are known to a moderate degree of confidence

barretts has stages of cell variation... or a progression... as it is sometimes called, which describe cell changes, when, and if ,there is a progression to cancer

non-dysplastic ( which i believe is also called metaplasia)...where it is estimate that less than one percent of patients see a progression from metaplasia to cancer in any one year

low-grade dysplasia,

high-grade dysplasia,

for high-grade dysplasia,... there is a riisk of developing to cancer at a rate estimated at around 10% per patient each year.

there is excellent information about this in the wikipedia entry "barretts esophagus"

so if i am diagnosed with a low grade dysplasia i would want to get scoped every year

if i am diagnosed with a high grade dysplasia i would want to receive ablation therapy to eradicate the barretts cells an then go for surgery

this approach should stack the odds very much in favor of survival

there are no sure things

note i was diagnosed with barretts metaplasia last march and i think i share your feelings...i have other medical and emotional issues and swim in a sea of apprehension...or worse

best wishes
mt

Post Edited (mock turtle) : 7/22/2011 10:30:06 AM (GMT-6)

I believe one thread was called "can you be a severe lifelong gerd sufferer and never get Barrets"

Please correct me if I am wrong but you do not have Barretts at this time from what I remember in your threads. 

Kindly,

Kitt

When I had my first endo/biopsy last Nov. I was told I had Barretts. This Doc told me he likes to do an annual biopsy to monitor the Barretts. He gave me all the percentages of it progressing to cancer. Although he said it is a 1-3% chance of developing into cancer I was not happy w/those odds. So I asked what can be done to eradicate the cells BEFORE they have a chance to progress to cancer....he said at this juncture we (doctors in the GI field) just wait and see. So I replied....I guess I'll get treatment when I get cancer then, huh? I asked that he refer me out to another GI that is PROACTIVE and does not advocate the wait and see approach. His feelings were of no concern to me. I was referred and this doctor as of this date has performed a partial wrap and at my follow up appt (in 3 days) we will discuss me having an ablation (HALO ABLATION) to address the Barretts. I will do what I can to reduce my chances of getting cancer of the esophagus. Having a doctor who says "wait and see you in a year" didn't cut it for me. I wonder if he would give that same advice to a loved one in his family? I somehow doubt it. Be your own advocate, do all your research and bring this to the table when you discuss your health and life w/ your doctor. I wish everyone well.

theacidrefluxman, I don't have high grade (yet) but the fact that I have it at all is serious to me. I made that very clear. They do a "wait and see" approach which is, I guess standard procedure. Fine, unless it is their loved one. The one size fits all approach doesn't sit well with me. Luckily I now have a doctor that is on the same page as I am. PROACTIVE is my motto. I do my research and present it to the doctor for an open discussion....then we move forward. I knew I had the right doctor when I was diagnosed w/GERD and he said lets map out a plan of attack. That was my thinking too!