Posted 10/25/2011 8:50 AM (GMT 0)
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1103042
Here's a link to the original article, though the review in the British Medical Journal dated 22 October is more pleasant to read.
The Danish did an ENTIRE population study which showed them that only 1 in 860 adults with Barrett's will go on to develop adenocarcinoma each year - the risk was lower still for women and for patients without dysplasia on their endoscopy. The BMJ comments that the risk is FOUR TIMES LOWER than previous results - having tracked 11,000 adults with Barrett's for five years.
The Danish, who aren't big on screening, suggest surveillance guidelines should be reviewed. The BMJ article comments "there is little evidence that endoscopic surveillance reduces mortality for adults without dysplasia ..." and adds "just 7.6% of all new adenocarcinomas registered between 1992 and 2009 were linked to Barrett's oesophagus".
The original article puts absolute risk at 0.12% - down from 0.5% as previously thought.
MMM