Odds of Barretts on next scope?

There's no way of knowing until you've had it done really! It's just a lottery. My first scope showed nothing at all - anywhere! My 2nd showed gastritis and a tiny area of Barretts. My 3rd showed gastritis and the same (1 year later) tiny area of Barretts. My symptoms at the time of the first scope were quite bad, and yet that showed nothing. My symptoms at my 3rd scope were maximal and after a bad period of being intolerant of medication - I fully expected some kind of bad news, even if just to say the Barretts had spread. However, things were exactly the same, despite a really bad period of reflux.

It's best to focus on general health things - things that reduce your overall risk of cancer. If you are worrying about Barretts you are worrying unnecessarily - they don't even know for sure what makes it progress. And for people who have developed Barretts, the commonest cause of death is not cancer, but heart disease.

I've said many times on this forum, if you're going to worry about cancer, then start worrying about the more common cancers first - you have more chance of bowel or prostate cancer than you do of oesophageal cancer!

Try not to overthink it - you'll soon be the other side of the test. And even if some Barretts shows up, there's no need to panic!

MMM

MMM, you are my hero. I need a small you on my shoulder throughout the day.

Even though some here on the forum seem to have progressed to Barrett's over a few years, the general consensus is that esophageal mucosal state does not usually change after the first scope. If you don't have Barrett's after 3-4 years, it could be expected that your risk of progressing to Barrett's is extremely low. But yeah, just like MMM said, its ultimately a lottery.

Try not to work yourself up, it will just make your symptoms worse. I agree with everyone else, but for peace of mind get the scope. I had one again in march after not having one for 6 years and I was convinced that it had gotten worse because the flare up lead me to demanding to have one. I was shocked when my then doctor told me it was the same--mild non erosive reflux esophagitus. Since then I have re done my diet so I am interested to see if if changes for the better the next time I get one.

Hey Erica,

Trust me, I am not writing this to be a jerk or anything. I am legitimately confused and curious. Your Dr. said it was "mild, non-erosive esophagitis"? If so, do you know how he judged it to be "mild"? Because if it is non-erosive, he can't see any effects of it, right? I've had a Dr's tell me I have non-erosive GERD on all my scopes except my very first, when I was told I had "mild erosive esophagitis" (level 1). I am just confused about the mild and the non-erosive in your diagnosis.

I am not intentionally splitting hairs like a jerk, just trying to clarify :)